Mark Lammey
Show Bio
The Phillies finished off the 1st half of the season strong, with a dominating sweep over the Marlins. They took it by a combined score of 16-1 over the 3 games. They now welcome a Cubs team that has been struggling throughout the entire year. Chicago has lost 9 of their last 10 games and is now just half a game above the Reds for last in the NL Central. Although these teams appear on opposite trajectories, there are still plenty of ways to make this series opener profitable. Along with this same game parlay, be sure to check out our thoughts on the side and total for all of today’s games.
Phillies -1.5 (+135)
Phillies – Over 4.5 total runs (-110)
Nick Castellanos 2+ total bases (-105)
Parlay odds: +340
Let’s take a closer look at each leg of our same game parlay.
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+135) over Chicago Cubs
Friday’s series opener looks to be a prime spot for the Phillies to get off to a great start to the 2nd half of their season. Not only are they facing a struggling Cubs team, but they’ll also be hitting against starter Justin Steele. He’s had struggles of his own this season, even against some of the worst lineups. Steele has now lost 5 of his last 7 starts, including against lowly teams like the Pirates. Even his most recent win was against 1 of the few teams with a worse record than the Cubs — the Reds. Steele has also been smashed by the Reds this season, giving up 7 runs in 2.0 innings in a 20-5 loss.
Such a dominant loss also illustrates how weak the Cubs bullpen has been. Their struggles coupled with their lack of run production has been a huge problem. Chicago scored just 4 runs in a 4-game span the week leading up to the all-star break. All of that is great news for Phillies starter Kyle Gibson. He’s looked great overall, as the team has won 6 of his last 8 starts. He’s pitched at least 6.0 innings in 5 of those games, providing some relief for the Phillies bullpen. Gibson has allowed just 1 run over 13.0 innings in his last 2 starts, and should keep his hot streak going now with plenty of rest.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for the Chicago Cubs vs Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies – Over 4.5 total runs (-110)
As if all of that wasn’t enough to support a Phillies win, they have been smashing left-handed pitching this season. They’ve been as high as the 2nd-best lineup against them and currently have the 8th-best OPS. That’s exactly what they’ll see with Steele on the mound, who is far from a lefty ace like Clayton Kershaw. In 4 of Steele’s last 5 losses, the opponent has scored at least 5 runs. That includes the aforementioned Pirates loss, where that weak lineup put up 8 runs. Steele gave up 6 of those, so the Phillies should have no issue hitting him.
Even if Philly doesn’t hit this number while Steele is still on the mound, the Cubs bullpen has been awful. They have been as bad as the 2nd-worst, and are currently the 7th-worst in MLB. Everything seems to add up to a Phillies win, and in convincing fashion.
Nick Castellanos 2+ total bases (-105)
One player in the Phillies lineup that should play a major role in both their win and team total is Nick Castellanos. The former Red often gets overlooked due to the home-run power of Schwarber, but he’s a great hitter himself. Even the fact that he was once in Cincinnati helps him in today’s game. Castellanos is more familiar with hitting against Steele than the rest of the Phillies. It’s not a massive sample size, but he’s 4-for-8 against the lefty, including 2 doubles and a home run. That gives him a ridiculous 1.125 slugging percentage against Steele, and that success should continue today.
Along with those numbers, he also has 20 doubles and 8 home runs this season. He may be trailing Schwarber in homers, but Castellanos’ 89 hits is far more than his 70, and should provide confidence in him hitting this prop today.
Don’t miss our MLB mega parlay for tonight’s action (+884 odds!)
What is a Same Game Parlay?
Check out our guide on what is a same game parlay and where can I bet it?
Pickswise is the home of free MLB Picks & MLB Predictions. Make sure to also check out our MLB Parlays and MLB Prop bets tabs for more expert picks.
