Mark Lammey
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Both the Cubs and Reds finished up their previous series with early afternoon games yesterday. That gave both teams time to travel over to Iowa to prepare for tonight’s Field of Dreams game, which will be live on Fox at 7:10 pm ET. These NL Central foes are quite familiar with each other. This will be the 8th meeting between them this season, with the Cubs having the slight edge of 4 wins in the first 7 games. With another rather evenly priced matchup, there are plenty of markets to make this series opener profitable. Along with this same game parlay, be sure to check out our thoughts on the side and total for all of today’s games.
Cubs ML (-102)
Under 9 total runs (-114)
Nick Lodolo 6+ strikeouts (-320)
Parlay odds: +445
Let’s take a closer look at each leg of our same game parlay.
Chicago Cubs ML (-102) over Cincinnati Reds
Although neither of these teams has impressed this season, it’s a bit of a surprise to see the Reds as slight favorites, especially when you consider that they won’t even have home advantage. Regardless, let’s take advantage of an opportunity for the Cubs to demonstrate how depleted the Reds are. They were just swept by the Mets during the week by a combined score of 21-5. While New York is a strong team, Cincinnati is finding it harder to stay competitive as time goes on. That’s because they were the biggest sellers of the trade deadline. They traded away their best starting pitchers, Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle.
That’s only an issue on specific nights, but trading away their best two hitters is causing offensive struggles on a nightly basis. Brandon Drury went to the Padres and hit a grand slam with his first at-bat out west, while Tommy Pham has recorded 7 RBIs over the last 3 games for the Red Sox. Their absence is good news for Cubs starter Drew Smyly. The former Brave has already led the team to a win over the Reds earlier this season, and is coming off a shutout win. He was also a starter in one of the games for the Cubs sweep over the Phillies out of the all-star break. Now with a much weaker team wearing red, Smyly can record back-to-back wins against Cincy.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for the Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds
Under 9 total runs (-114)
The Reds’ depleted lineup helps support this play as well. Drury and Pham accounted for a bulk of their run production, and that isn’t their only issue. Last season’s NL Rookie of the Year Jonathan India got banged up against the Mets, and is playing at less than 100%. Third baseman Mike Moustakas’ injury a few minutes later was more serious, and he’s now on the injured list. This total is only listed as high as it is due to the Reds being the best team for overs earlier in the season.
However, they’ve been trickling down the ranks since their trades and could be outside the top 10 by the end of the weekend. While their run production is dwindling, the Cubs’ was never impressive to begin with. They’ve scored the 4th-fewest runs in the National League, and put that on display with both of their most recent road series. They averaged 2.5 runs per game against the Giants, then scored just 5 total runs in the following series against the Cardinals. Although the Reds no longer have Castillo or Mahle, they have a rookie in Nick Lodolo who has impressed thus far.
Also check out our YRFI/NRFI best bets for today!
Nick Lodolo 6+ strikeouts (-320)
Let’s transition right into that rookie Lodolo. While he has the misfortune of a lineup that is unlikely to support him, he can still do his part. The young lefty is going to make his mark in the big leagues by becoming a great strikeout-pitcher.
Admittedly, he had just 4 strikeouts in his most recent start. However, he was impressive in each of his 7 starts prior. He’s had strikeout totals of 9, 8 twice, 7 twice, 6 and 5. While it’s not the largest sample size, the Cubs have struck out the 4th-most in the National League and 7th-most overall. Chicago’s 3rd baseman Patrick Wisdom has done so the 3rd-most by an individual hitter, and even Ian Happ has over 100 strikeouts. With the Cubs lineup unfamiliar with Lodolo, let’s roll with the rookie to bounce back.
Don’t miss our MLB mega parlay for tonight’s action (+1067 odds!)
What is a Same Game Parlay?
Check out our guide on what is a same game parlay and where can I bet it?
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