Mark Lammey
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Coming into the season, not many fans would have expected this to be a battle between teams towards the bottom of their respective divisions. Yesterday’s win put the Royals a half-game up over the Tigers, while the Red Sox are bottom of the AL East. Although the Royals’ expectations weren’t high this season, there was still a lot of hype for rookie sensation Bobby Witt Jr. As for the Red Sox, they are expected to compete with the Yankees. However, they’ve fallen below even the Orioles in the division. The trade deadline also had a great impact on these teams, which also provides even more opportunities across several markets to make some profit from this game. Along with this same game parlay, be sure to check out our thoughts on the side and total for all of today’s games.
Red Sox ML (-116)
Under 11.5 total runs (-320)
Xander Bogaerts 2+ total bases (+120)
Parlay odds: +450
Let’s take a closer look at each leg of our same game parlay.
Boston Red Sox ML (-116) over Kansas City Royals
After the established Nick Pivetta proved shaky once against last night, rookie Josh Winckowski is continuing his time in the rotation for the Red Sox. Led by Chris Sale, Boston has some injury woes, but the youngster has filled in nicely. He just won his last start against a very deep Brewers lineup in a convincing 7-2 victory. Not only has the Royals’ lineup been one of the weakest all season, but it’s also been depleted since the trade deadline. Beginning with one of the best hitters in the entire league, Andrew Benintendi was traded to the Yankees. As if losing a guy with the 5th-most hits in the American League wasn’t enough, they also lost Whit Merrifield to the Blue Jays, who had the 3rd-most hits in the AL last season.
It was already difficult enough to produce enough run support for their pitching staff, as they have the league’s 3rd-worst bullpen and 4th-worst overall team ERA. The series-opening 7 runs is more than they’ve scored in the last 3 games combined, and should not be a nightly expectation. That doesn’t provide much confidence for veteran Zack Greinke. The 38-year-old is in the midst of his 2nd stint with the Royals and his 19th overall season. While these teams haven’t met this year, Greinke has never enjoyed facing the Red Sox. He’s 2-5 with a 5.09 ERA against them in his career. His most recent loss was just last season in which he was pulled after allowing 4 runs in just 3.0 innings. Friday looks to be a situation to back the young blood and the Sox rather than the aging veteran and the Royals.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for the Boston Red Sox vs Kansas City Royals
Under 11.5 total runs (-320)
The Red Sox had been able to find a bit of a groove again, as they had won 3 of their last 4 games heading into this series. However, they haven’t been as potent at the plate with their own injury issues. For example, they impressively beat the Astros in back-to-back games to begin their most recent series. Those wins ended with game totals of just 5 and 3 runs. Even when they got Rafael Devers back in the lineup, they produced just a single run. While they should be expected to score more than just 1 run against the Royals’ poor bullpen, it shouldn’t need to be much more than that.
The loss of Benintendi and Merrifield affects more than just Kansas City’s ability to win. They’ve scored the 4th-fewest runs in the league, and last night was more of an outlier. They generally have to rely almost solely on Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez for their production. That hasn’t exactly panned out for them, as they scored just 5 total runs in their series prior to this one, against the White Sox. That was at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago, one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks. Now both lineups are hitting at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City which ranks next-to-last for home runs. With plenty of wiggle room using the alternate line, there should be no sweat with this leg while still being a piece of a solid payout.
Also check out our MLB YRFI/NRFI best bets for today!
Xander Bogaerts 2+ total bases (+120)
Boston bolstered their roster by adding former Padre teammates of last year, Eric Hosmer and Tommy Pham. However, we’re going to target a hitter that has been holding this Red Sox lineup together all season. Xander Bogaerts has been one of the league’s most consistent hitters, and has been clutch when Devers and J.D. Martinez have missed time. He has the 3rd-most hits and 5th-most doubles in the American League.
Those ranks have helped him rack up 171 total bases, tied for the 14th-most in the AL. The all-star shortstop should also be expected to have a great rest of this series. Despite the rare off-night in the series opener, he has a .326 career batting average against the Royals. He only has 2 at-bats against Greinke specifically, but 1 was a hit for a double. Whether he tacks on another against the starter or crushes Kansas City’s terrible bullpen, bank on Bogaerts to come through.
Don’t miss our MLB mega parlay for tonight’s action (+850 odds!)
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