Mark Lammey
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To say these teams got out to opposite starts to the 2nd half of their seasons would be an understatement. The Astros came out of the all-star break sweeping a doubleheader against the league-best Yankees and followed it up with a sweep of the Mariners, who were on a 14-game winning streak. Meanwhile, the Red Sox were outscored 40-10 in their opening series and have now lost 9 of their last 12 games. Thankfully, there are plenty of markets to target to make this matchup profitable. Along with this same game parlay, be sure to check out our thoughts on the side and total for all of today’s games.
Astros ML (-195)
Over 0.5 1st inning runs (-105)
Yordan Alvarez 2+ total bases (-105)
Parlay odds: +360
Let’s take a closer look at each leg of our same game parlay.
Houston Astros ML (-195) over Boston Red Sox
After taking 3 of 4 games over the weekend against the Mariners, the Astros now have a 12-game lead in the AL West. On the other hand, the Red Sox have found themselves below the Orioles for last place in the AL East. Although it’s a difficult division with the Yankees’ dominance this season, Houston has been the one team to give New York issues. If they’re able to take down the league’s strongest team, they should have no issue with one of the league’s worst since the all-star break. The Astros have been able to rely on their incredible pitching staff, while the Red Sox lineup is depleted without superstar Rafael Devers.
It looks as though the problems will continue for Boston with the way Sox starter Nathan Eovaldi has pitched recently. He should be one of their reliable pitchers, but he has been anything but. He was the one on the mound for the ridiculous 28-5 loss in the 1st game after the all-star break. While that is a bit extreme, he also struggled in his following start, allowing 5 runs in a loss to the Guardians. His rough starts wouldn’t be as bad if the Sox relievers hadn’t also taken a massive downswing.
The Red Sox bullpen has plummeted to the 6th-worst in the league, falling below even the Nationals and Athletics. All of that is a recipe for disaster when taking on the American League’s 2nd-best team. Houston starter Luis Garcia has beaten the Yankees twice in his last 5 starts, so he should have no issue leading his team to a series-opening win.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for the Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros
Over 0.5 1st inning runs (-105)
It’s likely not a surprise that this is primarily about the stacked top half of Houston’s lineup and the struggling Eovaldi. However, the Sox deserve a bit of attention here. Even without Devers, they have 2 of the best hitters for extra-base hits in J.D. Martinez and Xander Bogaerts at the top of their lineup. Better yet, Bogaerts had a home run in the 1st inning against Garcia in their series back in mid-May.
That also leads us to breaking down the Astros’ dominance, specifically against Eovaldi. First and foremost, Jose Altuve also had a leadoff home run in that same game. But it doesn’t end there. Altuve has a .857 slugging percentage against Eovaldi, including 2 doubles and 3 home runs. Obviously, he’ll be up in the 1st inning as the Astros leadoff man. Similarly, there’s Alex Bregman who also has 2 doubles and a home run against the Sox starter in just 8 at-bats.
Finally, there is the AL MVP candidate Yordan Alvarez. Not only is he having an incredible season, he is 4-for-4 with a double and home run against Eovaldi for a 2.000 slugging percentage. No, that’s not a typo. While that may not be sustainable, Alvarez has only gotten better since he last faced him. With there being a run scored in 2 of the 3 games the last time these teams met, expect them to start out this series where they left off.
Yordan Alvarez 2+ total bases (-105)
The Astros have an embarrassment of riches in their lineup with so many great hitters. We’re going to target a guy who’s having an MVP-type season, and is only such an underdog for the award due to Aaron Judge. Speaking of Judge, he and Alvarez are 2 of just 4 American League hitters that have eclipsed 200 total bases on the season. The Astros’ designated hitter just got his 201st with a walk-off single in yesterday’s series finale win over the Mariners. Not only is that the 8th-most in the entire league, he’s done so in just 86 games. For some perspective, he has more total bases than Pete Alonso who has played in 100 games.
Even when Alvarez did miss a few games, his 1st time back in the starting lineup was a home run against the Yankees. It will be a different AL East team this time around, but also keep in mind his aforementioned history of success against Eovaldi. Whether he continues that trend or hits this against the league’s 6th-worst bullpen, trust Alvarez to come through on Monday.
Don’t miss our YRFI/NRFI best bets for tonight’s action!
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