It’s another big day in baseball on Wednesday with games starting early in Pittsburgh and going through the day before the slate concludes in Seattle. With so many games on, there is bound to be value, and I’ve picked out my favorite 3 plays to make for Wednesday’s games. Also, be sure to check out all of our MLB predictions for today!
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Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians F5 under 4.5 (-140)
The Guardians finish up their 3-game series with the White Sox in Cleveland. They will send Cal Quantrill to the mound, whose overall numbers are lackluster with a 4.06 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP, but he’s given the Guardians 4 consecutive quality starts against some pretty potent lineups in the Yankees, Twins, Angels and Mets. In May, Quantrill has a 2.77 ERA with a WHIP of 1.00, while only allowing 8 earned runs and opposing hitters are hitting just .202 against him.
Chicago will counter with Michael Kopech, who has also turned a corner in May. After an April with an ERA over 7, this month Kopech’s ERA is 2.55 with a sub-one WHIP and opposing hitters are batting just .136 against him. In his last 2 starts, Kopech has allowed just 2 hits over 12.2 innings. The Guardians lineup is second to last in MLB in first 5 runs scored per game at just 1.77. The White Sox are middle of the road averaging 2.5 runs in the first five, but I’ll trust Quantrill at home. I’m playing first 5 because the White Sox bullpen is a mess, and I don’t want them involved.
Minnesota Twins ML (-156) over San Francisco Giants
Minnesota will close out their 3-game set with San Francisco and try to avoid being swept. It’s been a low-scoring series so far, and the final game may stay with that trend as Joe Ryan starts for the Twins. He’s 6-1 with a 2.25 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP. He’ll face Anthony DeSclafani, who brings in a 3.09 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP. Both of these bullpens have been worked in the first 2 games of the series. San Francisco went with a bullpen game in the opener, and the Twins had to use 4 relievers last night. Overall, the Giants’ bullpen is bad, with the 3rd worst bullpen ERA in the majors.
Joe Ryan receives some of the best run support in baseball. He’s 6th in MLB, of starters with at least 5 starts, being backed with 6.67 runs per game. The Twins are also hitting over 30 points better at home than on the road and slugging over 100 points better at home. Let’s hope for some positive regression from Minnesota here, who haven’t scored more than 3 runs in 3 straight games. This is moderately priced here enough for me to take the Twins’ money line and bring the Giants’ bullpen into play if the Minnesota offense starts slow.
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Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals NRFI (-118)
Zack Greinke has always been a different pitcher at home throughout his entire career. He’s won over 70% of his games at home, has a lower ERA, a lower WHIP, a better K/9 ratio and a better K/BB ratio. He’s also been nearly impossible to get scored upon in the first inning when he pitches at home. Grienke has not allowed a first inning run at Kaufman Stadium since he returned to the Royals in the last two seasons. In fact, you have to go back to August 29th, 2020 to find the last time Greinke, who was a member of the Astros at the time, allowed a first inning run at home.
The Tigers will start Michael Boyd. He’s allowed a first inning run in just 2 of his 8 starts this year. There is a little trepidation here with Boyd as the Royals bats have woken up in May. They’ve already scored more runs in May than they did in April and have played 7 fewer games. They also hit much better at home, as most teams do. But any time I can almost eliminate one-half of a NFRI, if the price is right, it’s worth a gamble. We get that here.
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