I went 2-1 with my 3 MLB picks in Monday’s article taking my record to 23-16, so let’s try to match or exceed that once more with 3 more plays for Tuesday’s MLB slate.
Today I like a total play, a run-line pick, and a first 5-inning run line, so let’s get into explaining the reasoning behind those picks.
Blue Jays vs Red Sox under 9.5 (-105)
Toronto counters with Yusei Kikuchi, whose numbers look good, but they would look even better if it wasn’t for a bad start against the Angels, when he lasted just 4.1 innings and gave up 9 hits and 6 runs. In his 4 other starts combined, he has given up just 3 runs on 15 hits in 22.2 innings with an ERA below 3. His last 3 starts have been particularly dominant, going 17.2 innings with a 1.02 ERA and a sub-1 WHIP. I think Kikuchi can take care of an average Red Sox lineup tonight and hold them down long enough to keep this total under.
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Orioles ML over Royals (-162)
The Orioles and Royals start a 3-game series at Kaufman Stadium in Kansas City. I’ll try not to overthink this one. Kansas City is 1-12 at home this season, which is the worst record in MLB. At 10-5 on the road, Baltimore has the 4th-best winning percentage in baseball on the road. Like I said, let’s not overthink this one. Much of this will boil down to the pitching, particularly the starting pitching. The Orioles will send Tyler Wells to the mound and he has great numbers with a 2.79 ERA and a 0.72 WHIP. Wells has made only 1 road start this year but has 2 appearances and opposing batters are hitting only .135 against him away from Camden Yards. Wells has allowed only 18 hits in 29 innings this season.
Kansas City will start Ryan Yarbrough, who has 8 appearances on the season but is making just his second start. Last time out, he faced the Angels and lasted 4 innings, giving up 4 hits and 1 run. Yarbrough has a 6.35 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. In the limited times he’s faced the lineup the second time around, opposing batting averages have jumped from .235 to .500. The Orioles should take care of business and at a moderate price, I’ll play them on the money line.
Check out today’s YRFI/NRFI best bets!
Phillies +0.5 first 5-inning run line over Dodgers (-106)
It’s game 2 between the Phillies and Dodgers out in Los Angeles. I faded the Phillies last night and it cashed for us as the Dodgers dominated in a 13-4 win. But tonight could be a different story. On paper, it looks like an easy spot to back the Dodgers with Julio Urias on the mound. He has been the most consistent pitcher for the Dodgers over the last 2 seasons, winning 37 games, but 2023 hasn’t been as good. After back-to-back seasons of a sub-3 ERA, Urias has a 4.41 ERA this season. His WHIP is up to 1.29 in 2023 after 0.96 in 2022 and 1.02 in 2021. Opposing batters are hitting .278 off Urias this year and the Phillies lineup should get to him too.
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