Welcome back to another week of MLB baseball. Today’s slate is smaller than usual with just 8 games, but that doesn’t mean we can’t win a few best bets. Overall I’m 21-15 with my best bets, so let’s keep the momentum going on Monday.
Tonight I like several favorites to cover the run line in addition to a money line pick between the Cleveland Guardians and New York Yankees. Without further ado, I’ll get into the reasoning behind those picks.
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Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (+115) over Philadelphia Phillies
The Los Angeles Dodgers welcome the Philadelphia Phillies to Dodger Stadium to begin a 3-game series. Los Angeles is coming off a 3-game sweep of the Cardinals while the Phillies took 2 of 3 in Houston against the Astros. Philadelphia lost last night on Sunday Night Baseball to Houston and had to travel late halfway across the country. That factors into the handicap of tonight’s game.
The Phillies start Tijuan Walker, who has a 4.97 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP on the season. He’s failed to get through 3 innings in 3 of his 5 starts this season. The two times he did, he faced weaker offenses in the Cincinnati Reds and the Chicago White Sox. In the 2 starts he gave up at least 4 runs, he faced potent lineups like the Yankees and Mariners. The Dodgers have one of the best lineups in baseball and are 2nd in MLB in home runs this season. Los Angeles gives the ball to Tony Gonsolin, who is making his second start of the year. He was very effective in his first start but on a pitch count. I expect him to be able to go deeper in this game. I love the spot here for the Dodgers to lay 1.5 on the run line.
Check out our MLB YRFI/NRFI best bets for today
Houston Astros -1.5 (+115) over San Francisco Giants
The Astros avoided being swept at home after their win on Sunday Night Baseball over the Phillies. They welcome the San Francisco Giants to Minute Maid Park who are fresh off their Mexico City series against the Padres. The Giants are coming down off that high elevation in Mexico they were just playing, and I think their bats will appropriately cool off as well. The bigger reason they will cool off is they are facing Luis Garcia. The Astros starter had a rough beginning to the season giving up 12 earned runs over 14 innings in his first 3 starts. He’s since found his groove going 13 innings, allowing zero earned runs and just 5 hits while striking out 16. He did that while facing the Rays and Blue Jays in his last 2 starts.
Ross Stripling starts for San Francisco. He’s winless on the season in 5 appearances, and his ERA is 6.89 and his WHIP is 1.60. He’s only gotten through 5 innings once this season, and he allowed 6 home runs in his 5 appearances. It’s not clear how long Stripling will go, but there’s a high probability that he won’t get through the outing unscathed. Plus, the Giants’ bullpen is one of the worst in baseball.
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New York Yankees ML (-130) over Cleveland Guardians
The Yankees have lost 3 straight and return home to start a series with the Guardians. The Yankees’ offense continues to be in a slide as they scored just 8 total runs in the 4-game set with Texas. In fact, they’ve only scored more than 5 runs just 5 times since April 7. Thankfully for them, they are facing an offense in the Guardians that is struggling as well. Cleveland is bottom 5 in MLB in runs, home runs and slugging percentage.
Domingo German takes the ball for New York. His numbers aren’t great overall, but he’s been victimized by the long ball allowing at least 2 home runs in 3 of his 5 starts, but those were against top lineups like Toronto, Philadelphia and Minnesota. The Guardians don’t hit home runs as they are second to last in that category in MLB. German’s been very good at Yankee Stadium, where opposing hitters are hitting just .190 against him this season, and he’s stuck out 25 batters in just 17 innings. You won’t often see the Yankees’ money line price this low, especially when they are home.
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