I don’t know about you, but I wish the Braves vs Phillies series was best-of-7 instead of best-of-5. Between the excellent pitching, clutch hitting and incredible atmospheres of Citizens Bank Park and Truist Park, I don’t want this series to end! But the series gets one step closer to finishing in Game 3, after which one team will be one win away from reaching the NLCS. I’ve crafted a Same Game Parlay that pays out at almost 7/1 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook and you can check out all our MLB predictions for tonight’s games.
Braves ML (+108)
Alternate total under 11.5 (-310)
Bryce Harper 2+ bases (+100)
Same Game Parlay odds: +680
Atlanta Braves ML (+108) over Philadelphia Phillies
It was an exciting two games in Atlanta, but now the setting shifts to Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. The Braves were lucky to salvage one game at home to avoid Game 3 being an elimination game and now face the difficult decision of who should start Game 3. Atlanta’s Game 3 starter is set to be Bryce Elder, who was the fourth starter for the Braves this season, who got the nod ahead of AJ Smith-Shawver, a 20-year-old rookie. Normally, this would be Charlie Morton’s spot in the rotation, but the veteran is out for the NLDS and hoping to return for the NLCS. Elder threw 7 scoreless innings at Citizens Bank Park in June and has far more experience than Smith-Shawver, who has appeared in just 25.1 innings in his MLB career.
The Phillies didn’t need to worry about pitching since Aaron Nola is on normal rest. Nola was often like a box of chocolates this season since he would throw 8 scoreless innings and follow it up with a pair of terrible outings against the Marlins or Nationals. He was incredibly difficult to predict, and going into the wild-card round, nobody knew exactly what to expect. However, Nola surpassed all expectations as he threw 7 scoreless innings and allowed just 3 hits against the Marlins. But Atlanta’s offense is a little bit different than Miami’s, and in 3 regular-season starts against the Braves, Nola allowed 7 runs, 16 hits and 3 home runs in 18 innings. Also, this will be just the 13th time since Opening Day that the Braves are underdogs. In the previous 12 games, they are 8-4. It’s not common to see Atlanta with a plus sign next to their money line price, so when it happens, I have to take advantage of it.
Check out our Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies predictions
Alternate total under 11.5 (-310)
I lean towards the under on the normal total of 9, but to give myself some extra cushion, I’m bumping the total up and taking an alternate total under. This is for one main reason — I want to include another pick that doesn’t necessarily correlate with the under. That drives up the payout of the parlay, so this leg is setting up the next leg.
The right-handed Elder excels when he keeps the ball out of the air since over 50% of the balls put in play against him are on the ground. His arsenal contains a sinker, slider and changeup, which all move downwards, so the right-hander is aiming to get weak and over-the-top swings on his pitches. Elder doesn’t need to be that perfect either since the Braves offense can score a few runs against Nola, so if Atlanta’s starter limits Philly to fewer than 3 runs, it seem hard to imagine the game reaching double-digit runs.
Philadelphia’s bullpen had been lights-out before Game 2. Rob Thomson hasn’t been afraid to go to his bullpen early to put pressure on the Braves, and that has worked in every game besides Game 2. But since the National League had yesterday off, it means every arm in each bullpen should be available. That’s another factor that leads me to think it could be a lower-scoring game than oddsmakers expect.
Don’t miss today’s YRFI/NRFI best bets
Bryce Harper 2+ bases (+100)
The hottest hitter in Philadelphia’s lineup is Bryce Harper. The face of the franchise was 3-for-6 in the first 2 games in Atlanta and now returns home to hit in front of the rowdy Citizens Bank Park crowd. Harper has been patient and working the count in his favor since he also had 3 walks across Games 1 and 2. If he continues to wait for his pitch, Harper should be able to accomplish this leg of the parlay in one swing. Or, he could do what he did in Game 1 and have a multi-hit game. Either way, I’m expecting Harper to play a big role in this crucial Game 3 matchup.
Also check out our Dodgers-Diamondbacks Same Game Parlay (+1032 odds!)
