Mark Lammey
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After yesterday’s Angels/Blue Jays game, we’ve cashed same game parlays 2 days in a row, so let’s make it 3. Not only does this matchup feature some of the league’s best, it’s also the featured ESPN Sunday Night Baseball game. It’s only fitting for such an important series to be the premier game of the day. The Braves have been one of the hottest teams recently, and are now within just 2 games of the Mets for the NL East lead.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals have taken the top spot in the NL Central, and need this series finale to extend that lead. With such a high-profile game, we have every market imaginable to finish off your Sunday with profit. Along with this same game parlay, be sure to check out our MLB picks for all of today’s games.
Over 5.5 total runs (-340)
Paul Goldschmidt 2+ total bases (+105)
Austin Riley 2+ total bases (+105)
Parlay odds: +412
Let’s take a closer look at each leg of our same game parlay.
Over 5.5 total runs (-340)
Rather than predicting either side to win this game, the total seems to be the way to go. This game is priced as nearly a pick ‘em, and rightfully so. The Braves are 2-2 behind Jake Odorizzi’s starts since joining the team, and the Cardinals are 2-2 in Adam Wainwright’s last 4 games. There was some optimism we would get a battle of aces for this primetime game, but Atlanta is going with the former Astro instead. He hasn’t been overly impressive since joining the team, especially after allowing 5 runs in a loss to the division-rival Mets.
Wainwright has had plenty of quality starts this season, but he’s had moments of shakiness as well. That’s especially true when facing deep lineups, which the Braves certainly are. He allowed 6 runs to the Yankees earlier this month, and 7 runs to the lowly Reds just over a month ago. He’s still their best option on the mound, but Atlanta’s lineup truly is that great. They’re the 3rd-highest scoring team in the league, and have the 2nd-highest OPS. That’s not to discount the Cardinals, as they’re just one spot behind them as the 4th-highest scoring team. Each lineup has some of the league’s best hitters. An argument can be made whether it’s Cardinal Paul Goldschmidt or Brave Austin Riley, but whichever side you fall, they should be getting this game over the total tonight.
Paul Goldschmidt 2+ total bases (+105)
Just as we’re going to focus on the total, we’re going to target the guys who should do the majority of the damage. There’s no surprise that when it comes to the Cardinals, the obvious choice is Paul Goldschmidt. While it may not be an outside-the-box play, he’s as reliable as they come. He’s been the favorite to win the NL MVP for the majority of the season, and is a near shoo-in at this point. He certainly deserves it, as his 286 total bases are the 2nd-most in the league, behind only Aaron Judge. However, he’s far less home-run dependent. He has nearly a perfect split of 34 doubles and 33 home runs as he has potential to win the triple crown. His .633 slugging percentage is also the 2nd-highest in the league, again only behind Judge. There’s simply no reason to doubt Goldschmidt, especially against a shaky Odorizzi.
Also check out our YRFI/NRFI best bets for today – we went 2-0 yesterday!
Austin Riley 2+ total bases (+105)
The only reason Goldschmidt isn’t the unanimous best hitter in the league is because of the Braves’ Austin Riley. He was the only one with at least 30 doubles and 30 home runs until Goldschmidt finally caught up. The only thing better would be if he was facing a lefty tonight. Regardless, his 273 total bases are just a spot behind Goldschmidt for the 3rd-most in the league. He too is a great balance, with 35 doubles and 31 home runs, along with 2 triples. He’s already smashed the Cardinals this season too. Riley is hitting .476 against them, with an absurd .762 slugging percentage. These teams met for a 4-game series last month, and he hit this prop in each of the last 3 games. Even if he doesn’t have another 7-total base game as he did then, he can easily get 2 tonight.
Don’t miss our MLB mega parlay for tonight’s action (+990 odds!)
What is a Same Game Parlay?
Check out our guide on what is a same game parlay and where can I bet it?
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