Mark Lammey
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After a quick 2-game sweep of the A’s, the Braves are continuing their west-coast road trip. They’ve reduced the gap between them and the Mets for the NL East lead to just half a game. They’re also the 5th-betting favorites to go back-to-back and win the World Series. The Mariners are having a great season in their own right. They’re focused on an AL wildcard spot, as the Astros have a stranglehold on the division. That makes this series much more interesting than it has been in recent years. Along with this same game parlay, be sure to check out our MLB picks for all of today’s games.
Braves ML (-116)
Over 6.5 total runs (-162)
Austin Riley 2+ total bases (+120)
Parlay odds: +384
Let’s take a closer look at each leg of our same game parlay.
Atlanta Braves ML (-116) over Seattle Mariners
The Braves not being significant favorites is a rarity with how great they’ve been this season. This game even originally opened with them as slight underdogs. That’s largely due to them being far from home and facing one of the Mariners’ top pitchers, Robbie Ray. Firstly, they’ve been out west all week and even had yesterday off. Secondly, Ray is a lefty. The Braves have absolutely smashed lefties this season, as they have the 2nd-highest OPS against them. They just faced a left-handed pitcher the last 2 games and put up 17 total runs.
Ray’s recent numbers may look nice, but it’s important to understand who he’s faced. Both of his last 2 starts were against the Guardians. Cleveland is terrible against lefties, as they have the 2nd-lowest OPS against them this season. His 2 starts prior to those were against 2 of the worst teams in baseball, the Nationals and Angels. Therefore, this series opener could be a rude awakening for him. Meanwhile, Braves starter Charlie Morton hasn’t looked like an aging veteran at all. His 175 strikeouts are the 6th-most in the NL, and he’s battled tough teams such as the Mets, Astros, and Cardinals of late. The Mariners have had a great season, but they’re still not up to par against the defending champs.
Be sure to check out our Atlanta Braves vs Seattle Mariners preview
Over 6.5 total runs (-162)
We’re going with a slightly alternate total, as it’s actually the original opening total for this game. Oddsmakers realized the money coming in on the over and needed to increase it. That should come as no surprise given the Braves and their matchup. Not only do they smash lefties, they’ve scored the 2nd-most runs in baseball. They’re behind only the Dodgers in that regard, and just behind them in team OPS as well. T-Mobile Park in Seattle is known as a pitcher-friendly stadium, but the Braves played in Oakland during the week, arguably the most pitcher-friendly ballpark in the league. They went over this total themselves in both games. Their lineup is simply littered with superstars.
All the way from leadoff man Ronald Acuna Jr down to Michael Harris II batting 7th. Acuna is a former NL Rookie of the Year and Harris could win the award this season. Sandwiched between them is Matt Olson and Austin Riley, 2 of best in the NL for both doubles and homers. That’s without mentioning Dansby Swanson and his 153 hits, the 4th-most in the NL. While that’s a lot of attention on Atlanta, that’s why they should win this game. The Mariners also have a top leadoff man with Julio Rodriguez, who is the favorite for Rookie of the Year on the AL side. Along with power-hitter Ty France, they can certainly do their part to get this game to at least 7 runs.
Also check out our YRFI/NRFI best bets for today!
Austin Riley 2+ total bases (+120)
It’s no shock that we’re targeting Austin Riley for this prop. He may not be the favorite for the award, but he’s having an MVP-caliber season. He was the first player to have both 35 home runs and 35 doubles, and has the 2nd-most total bases in the NL with 295. He entered the month with a homer in 4 straight games, and his 36 doubles are more than the NL MVP-favorite Paul Goldschmidt.
Riley is also the primary reason for the Braves success against lefties this season. His numbers against them are nothing short of incredible. He’s hitting .352 against lefties this season, with an unheard of .738 slugging percentage. That means when he’s getting hits, they’re for multiple bases more often than not. He even has the ability to cash this prop with multiple hits, as his 150 are the 5th-most in the NL. Riley hasn’t faced the Mariners yet this season, but expect those numbers to prove true.
Don’t miss our MLB mega parlay for tonight’s action (+1128 odds!)
What is a Same Game Parlay?
Check out our guide on what is a same game parlay and where can I bet it?
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