Ryan Hodges
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Entering the season, you would have been hard pressed to find any baseball fans or media have an NLCS prediction of the Diamondbacks and Phillies. Even as recently as a few weeks ago that did not feel like the most likely league championship series matchup. Nonetheless, here we are. There is one division winner left standing as wild card teams and new blood have knocked off playoff stalwarts to come within 4 wins of the pennant. It all starts tonight for what should be a fantastic NLCS.
If you’re looking to have some action on Game 1, check out our Diamondbacks vs Phillies Same Game Parlay below for their matchup on Monday. You can also read our MLB predictions for picks on all today’s games.
Phillies ML (-160)
Under 8.5 (-155)
Bryce Harper 2+ total bases (+155)
Same Game Parlay odds: +500
Phillies ML (-160)
After a decade-long playoff drought, last season the Phillies caught fire at the right time to get into the wild card and steamroll their way to the World Series. After going 5-1 to enter this NLCS, they appear to be doing the same thing once again this year. This team is plain showing up in the postseason. It is a close-knit group that is executing both productive at-bats and effective pitching. The Phillies are a tough fade right now.
Beating the Marlins in the wild card round was one thing. But beating the Braves in the NLDS with 3 wins in 4 games is another. Philadelphia outscored Atlanta 20-8 in their route of their juggernaut division rival. The Phillies did the same thing to the Braves last year and appear to be in even more of a groove this year. There is a buzz in the air over in Philadelphia. Until they come back down to earth, the Phillies are a reliable pick.
Under 8.5 (-155)
The under has been trending for the Diamondbacks lately as it has hit in 7 out of their last 10 games. On the season, Arizona’s over under record is 72-86-9. The Phillies’ over under record in their last 10 is 4-5-1 and on the season is 77-80-11. The primary reason for low totals being more common is great pitching. With a pitching matchup on Monday of Zac Gallen vs Zack Wheeler, low totals should be reinforced for game 1.
Gallen was 17-9 in the regular season with a 3.47 ERA and 220 strikeouts in 210 innings pitched. For consecutive seasons, Gallen has been one of the more reliable pitchers in baseball. With solid form continuing in the playoffs, there is no reason to think he will get shelled now. The narrative is similar for Wheeler who has been as steady as any pitcher over the last couple postseasons. In 13 innings pitched this postseason, Wheeler has allowed 3 earned runs and fanned 18. A low total looks great in game 1 thanks to these starters.
You can also check out our full analysis of today’s LCS games.
Bryce Harper 2+ total bases (+155)
Bryce Harper has been no stranger to headlines his entire life and this postseason has been no different. Harper was already playing great and got even more of a chip on his shoulder thanks to some drama stirred by Atlanta. He appears as likely as anyone in this game, let alone on the Phillies, to contribute to whatever offense can be mustered up. Harper is locked in right now and while he is, his props odds have appeal.
Harper has already faced solid pitching this postseason and has produced. Getting +155 for one of the most reliable hitters in this game to collect 2 bases is a great value even facing another solid pitcher. In 6 games played this postseason, Harper is hitting .368 with a 1.370 OPS, 3 home runs, 5 RBI’s, and 16 total bases. The moment is never too big for this guy and he will show up ready to win another pennant.
