The Philadephia Phillies are red-hot in Red October. They took Game 1 by a score of 5-3 as they launched 3 home runs during the win, which gave the Diamondbacks their first loss of the postseason. There’s no waiting around for Game 2 since the series resumes tonight, and I have a Diamondbacks vs Phillies Same Game Parlay that pays out at over 5/1 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. We cashed our D-backs vs Phillies SGP last night at +500 odds, so let’s make it 2 in a row!
NRFI (-113)
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+128)
Bryce Harper to record a hit (-200)
Same Game Parlay odds: +532
No Run First Inning (-113)
There is no shortage of fantastic pitching in this series as Game 2 of the NLCS features another exciting matchup between Merrill Kelly and Aaron Nola. Game 1 technically featured the aces of each staff, but Kelly and Nola are like the sidekicks — both still exceptional pitchers. Kelly ended the regular season on a fantastic note with a 3.22 ERA and 40 strikeouts in 36.2 innings in September and must have saved his best for last since he was lights out in the Divisional round. Next, Kelly will face a fiery Phillies squad in Philadelphia. Even in a hostile environment, Kelly has an excellent chance for a scoreless first inning. In the regular season, he limited hitters to a .213 batting average with a 29.6% strikeout rate in the first inning. And in his last 13 starts, he has allowed a first-frame run just 3 times.
Aaron Nola was a box of chocolates in the regular season. The right-hander never seemed to find his rhythm and always had one or two starts a month which frustrated a lot of Phillies fans. Fortunately for Nola and the Phillies, he’s been at his best in the postseason. Between the Wild Card round against the Marlins and the Divisional round against the Braves, Nola allowed just 2 earned runs and 9 hits with 12 strikeouts in 12.2 innings. Since Opening Day, Nola has been fantastic in the opening inning. He held hitters to a .197 batting average and a 35% strikeout rate in the first frame this season, and more recently, he has not allowed a first-inning run in 12 of his last 14 starts. Expect a slow start in Philadelphia on Tuesday night.
Read our full D-backs vs Phillies YRFI/NRFI best bet analysis — we’re on a 4-1 run!
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 over Arizona Diamondbacks (+128)
If you were to look at the score from last night’s series opener, you might think it was a close game since the Phillies only won by 2 runs. However, if you tuned in to the game, you would know the Diamondbacks never had a chance. Philadelphia launched two home runs in the first inning to jump out to a quick lead and finished with 3 home runs during the game. Unfortunately for the Phillies, all three homers were solo shots. Nevertheless, the Phillies continued to pound Zac Gallen and put the game on autopilot once the ace was taken out. The Snakes then proceeded to get a few runs from a home run that went only 345 feet and a sac fly. In the end, the Diamondbacks finished with just 4 hits against Zack Wheeler and the Phillies bullpen.
For Game 2 at Citizens Bank Park, the pitching matchup is still expected to be a great one. However, if the Phillies were able to jump on Gallen and knock around the ace of the staff, that doesn’t give me too much confidence in Kelly. Plus, Kelly relies on a fastball for about 30% of his pitches and uses that pitch when he’s down or up in the count. That could become a problem because last night, it became obvious that the Phillies were swinging early in the count to hit Gallen’s fastball. The plan was to hit the fastball and not let Gallen get ahead in the count to use his plethora of putaway pitches. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the same plan in action tonight. Plus, the Phillies are 5-0 straight up and on the run line at home in the postseason.
We have a 3-star best bet in our Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies predictions
Bryce Harper to record a hit (-200)
This shouldn’t be much of a surprise. Bryce Harper might be the hottest hitter in the postseason right now. In seven 7 games, the face of the Phillies has a .409 batting average, a .567 on-base percentage and 1.522 OPS. Harper has recorded a hit in 6 of the 7 postseason games with the only outlier being Game 2 of the Wild Card series against the Marlins. That wasn’t really Harper’s fault though, since he walked twice and intentionally walked another time. And last night, Harper’s first swing as a 31-year-old went over the fence. He finished the game 2-for-3 with a walk which means he has 5 hits in his last 12 at-bats.
In his career against Kelly, Harper is 1-for-5 (.200) with an 11.1% whiff rate. But digging deeper into his advanced metrics, the lefty slugger has a .521 xBA, a 1.078 xSLG and a 96.2 MPH average exit velocity. That tells me he has been unlucky in a few at-bats against Kelly, and a few of his hard-hit balls should have found a hole in the defense. Between his track record against Kelly and his postseason hitting, I’m backing Harper to get a hit in tonight’s game.
