Kyle Lupas
Show Bio
I have long held the belief that giving the top MLB teams a bye in the wild-card round was more of a detriment than a reward for their spectacular performances in the regular season, and this divisional round is proving just that. Aside from the All-Star break, there is no other time in the 162-game MLB regular season that teams receive 5 full days off. The Orioles, Astros, Braves and Dodgers are now 1-5 in the divisional round and the MLB might have a rest problem on their hands.
The Dodgers got steamrolled 11-2 by the D-backs in Game 1 and tonight now looks like a must-win situation for an L.A. team with World Series aspirations. I don’t think this Dodgers team will roll over, however, and tonight I have a Same Game Parlay cooked up that pays out at 5/1 odds at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Dodgers ML (-165)
Bobby Miller 6+ strikeouts (+110)
Over 0.5 1st inning runs (+100)
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers Same Game Parlay: (+500)
Dodgers ML (-165)
Game 1 couldn’t have gone much worse for the Dodgers on Saturday night. Clayton Kershaw recorded just 1 out and in the blink of an eye the Dodgers found themselves behind 9-0 after 2 innings. The good news is it’s difficult to imagine a scenario where the Dodgers start tonight’s game in a worse position than they did in Game 1. Even better news is that the Dodgers have great numbers against the Diamondbacks’ starting pitcher Zac Gallen. He has gone up against this lineup twice this season and has given up 5 earned runs in 4.2 innings and 6 earned runs in 5.1 innings.
Gallen had a remarkable 2022 campaign, but I’m not buying all the hype on the D-Backs’ ace. Through 34 regular-season starts this season, Gallen posted a 3.47 ERA, 4.18 xERA and a 46.2% hard-hit rate, which is well below the MLB league average of 36.3%. Gallen put together a decent outing in the wild-card round against the Brewers, allowing 2 earned runs across 6.0 innings, but surrendered 3 walks and often couldn’t put away hitters in 2-strike counts. I think Gallen has a much more difficult challenge ahead of him in L.A tonight.
I’m putting my trust in 24-year-old rookie Bobby Miller to save the Dodgers’ season. Miller managed to put together an impressive first campaign by registering a 3.76 ERA alongside an 11-4 record. Miller’s mix of a high-velocity 4-seam fastball sitting at 99 mph, paired with a curveball that’s yielding a .184 opposing batting average could cause major issues for this D-Backs lineup. It already has in 2 starts against Arizona this season as Miller has given up just 4 earned runs across 12.0 innings. The Dodgers will need length from Miller tonight, and I believe he can give them just enough to put Los Angeles in a great position to even the series.
Bobby Miller 6+ strikeouts (+110)
Bobby Miller has all the tools to become a great strikeout pitcher, yet his strikeout rate is right around the league average at 23.6%. In 22 starts this season, Miller has recorded over 5.5 strikeouts just 9 times, however 4 of those have come in his last 5 starts. I don’t necessarily like this pick just because of Miller’s strikeout ability, but because the Dodgers desperately need length from him after Kershaw recorded just 1 out in Game 1 of the series. Los Angeles can’t afford to get into their bullpen early in this game, and that should give Miller a better chance of staying on the hill. Miller has gone at least 6.0 innings in 8 of his last 10 starts and that makes him a great candidate to hit the over on his strikeout prop.
You can also read our full Diamondbacks vs Dodgers predictions
Over 0.5 1st-inning runs (+100)
The last leg of this Same Game Parlay comes down to the very first inning, which is always a risky proposition that hopefully doesn’t ruin the rest of the game for us. However, I’m leaning on the side of early runs, especially against Gallen, who surrendered 2 first-inning runs to the Brewers in the wild-card round. Gallen has struggled against the Dodgers this season with a 9.90 ERA in 2 starts, one of which resulted in 3 first-inning runs for the Dodgers. Gallen has also struggled on the road, posting a 4.42 road ERA as compared to a 2.47 ERA at home.
While Miller has good numbers in 2 starts against the top of the Arizona lineup this season, he hasn’t been as sharp at home this season as on the road. Millers’ home ERA of 4.55 is nearly 1.5 runs higher than his 3.09 road ERA. This is also the biggest game Miller has pitched in, so nerves can certainly be a factor in the early stages against a talented D-Backs team. I’m backing the first-inning over.
This game is also featured in today’s YRFI/NRFI best bets
