Mark Lammey
Show Bio
After last night’s walk-off win, the Padres were able to bounce back from their lackluster series opener. It was just a day after playing in Los Angeles against the league-best Dodgers on national TV, so it wasn’t the best spot for them. San Diego needs this series as they look to solidify their wildcard positioning. That’s not something the Diamondbacks are looking forward to, but divisional series always make things more interesting. These teams are going to meet again in just a week’s time, so let’s break down the best ways to make this finale profitable.
Along with this same game parlay, be sure to check out our MLB picks for all of today’s games.
Padres -1.5 (-105)
Yu Darvish 6+ strikeouts (-205)
Manny Machado 2+ total bases (-115)
Parlay odds: +359
Let’s take a closer look at each leg of our same game parlay.
San Diego Padres -1.5 (-105) over Arizona Diamondbacks
Even with the series-opening loss, the Padres have dominated the season series over the Diamondbacks. They’ve won 10 of their 14 meetings, and they were all by multiple runs until last night. This game also originally opened at a significantly higher price with the Padres at -260 on the money line. Such a shift illustrates a misprice rather than significant money coming in on Arizona as it was just on one sportsbook. Regardless, it provides more value on San Diego besides their stud starter Yu Darvish. Joe Musgrove may be their listed ace, but Darvish is the one who has racked up 12 wins on the year.
Two of those came against the Diamondbacks in the last 2 times he faced them. Each of those wins was also by multiple runs at home. He pitched a full 7.0 innings in each start, striking out 14 batters along the way. Meanwhile, Manny Machado and the Padres lineup will be facing a rookie starter in Tommy Henry. This will be just his 7th career start, and he’s yet to face either the Dodgers or Padres. In fact, he’s faced only the last-place Rockies in terms of divisional opponents. He was just smashed by the Phillies for 7 runs in 4.0 innings and even lost to the Guardians, the 2nd-worst team in the league against lefties. With the Padres demonstrating they can win by more than 1 run even at home, trust them once again with this advantageous matchup.
Be sure to check out our full Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres predictions
Yu Darvish 6+ strikeouts (-205)
Let’s focus a bit more on Darvish and the recent success he’s had. He’s coming off of a dominant performance over the Dodgers, the best team in baseball. Not only did the Padres win that game 7-1, Darvish racked up 9 strikeouts in that start. That’s no fluke either. He struck out 10 Dodgers earlier in the season. We’re using the slightly alternate total simply due to the fact that the Diamondbacks aren’t one of the top strikeout teams. However, Darvish has proven that he can hit this against them regardless. He struck out 9 Arizona batters the last time he faced them. That was the start of a 3-game stretch of striking out 9 batters twice and then 11. The bottom line is that it doesn’t seem to matter who he’s facing, so trust Darvish to deliver once again.
Find out our MLB YRFI/NRFI best bets for today!
Manny Machado 2+ total bases (-115)
We’re going with another big name for our last leg. Rather than going with one of the newcomers in Juan Soto or Josh Bell, we’re going to stick with consistency. Machado has been having an incredible season, even before the new guys joined the team. His 146 hits are the 6th-most in the NL and 34 doubles are the 5th-most in the NL. Even his 26 home runs are the 7th-most. All of that slugging has him with 260 total bases, the 7th-most in the NL. That’s a lot of numbers, but lastly, his .300 average is also the 6th-highest in the NL. We’re also targeting Machado as he’s the best out of him, Soto, and Bell against lefties. With a .492 slugging percentage against them, he can put that to good use against the rookie Henry tonight.
Don’t miss our MLB mega parlay for tonight’s action (+951 odds!)
What is a Same Game Parlay?
Check out our guide on what is a same game parlay and where can I bet it?
Pickswise is the home of free MLB Picks. Check out the latest MLB Prop Bets and MLB Parlays as well as our MLB Best Bets from the experts.
