The Futures game and the Home Run Derby are both in the books, so that means it’s time for the main event. The MLB All-Star Game takes place tonight at 8:00 pm ET and is one of the most exciting games of the season. It features the best talent from around the sport on one field, and this year that diamond will be at T-Mobile Park in Seattle, Washington. I’ve crafted a 3-leg Same Game Parlay that pays out at over 18/1 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, so let’s get into it!
Under 7 (+100)
J.D. Martinez 1st at-bat is a strikeout (+270)
Ronald Acuna Jr. to record a run (+115)
Same Game Parlay odds: +1854
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Under 7 runs (+100)
As expected, this number has dropped from 7.5 to 7. Ten of the last 14 All-Star Games have ended with 7 or fewer runs which made me think that 7.5 was just a bit too high, and the oddsmakers have corrected themselves. It’s not that the hitting won’t be good — the pitching should just be better. On the mound to start the All-Star Game are Gerrit Cole for the American League and Zac Gallen for the National League, and while this is an incredible honor, it doesn’t mean they will get more time on the mound. Each pitcher will throw only 1 inning before the next ace comes in, and unfortunately for us bettors, we have no idea who is going to come after Cole or Gallen.
We can make educated guesses such as hometown hero Luis Castillo relieving Cole and the surging southpaw Justin Steele coming in after Gallen, but once again, it’s all guesses. However, what I do know is that the pitching will be great no matter who is on the bump. Looking back at the last few All-Star Games, the average number of runs per game during the AL’s 9-year winning streak is just 6.89. There has been only one instance of the game reaching double digits, and that was back in 2018. The under is the first pick of this Same Game Parlay, and it can help to drive up the payout with the next two picks.
Check out my All-Star Game preview and predictions
J.D. Martinez 1st at-bat is a strikeout (+270)
I’m going for a quick winner here as I’m hoping that J.D. Martinez gets up in the top of the 1st inning. He’s batting cleanup behind Ronald Acuna Jr., Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts, so there’s a pretty good chance he can get an at-bat against Cole, especially since the first three guys have a .421 combined batting average against Cole in 39 at-bats. That’s the reason I’m targeting this bet — Martinez is terrible against Cole. Martinez faced Cole plenty of times during his time with the Red Sox, but the more at-bats against Cole resulted in more outs. He’s 8-for-43 with 18 strikeouts in his career against Cole.
Martinez can’t seem to pick up the difference between Cole’s 4-seam fastball and his wipeout slider, which has resulted in a lot of swings and misses. But going one step further, Martinez has been striking out a lot this year… and I mean a lot. His 30.3% punchout rate is the highest of his career and puts him in the 9th percentile among hitters this season. And in July, Martinez has struck out in 11 of his 31 at-bats while hitting just .194. I’m crossing my fingers that Martinez gets up in the 1st inning against Cole and goes down by a strikeout.
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Ronald Acuna Jr. to record a run (+115)
Atlanta’s superstar is set to lead off for the National League tonight. This is his 4th All-Star nomination and the 2nd year in a row that he will lead the batting order for the NL. Last year, Acuna Jr. went 1-for-3 with a run during the NL’s 3-2 loss in Los Angeles. I was pleasantly surprised to see Acuna Jr. get three at-bats because starters usually only get two, but since he’s at the top of the order again, he might be able to do the same tonight. His first at-bat will come against Cole, and he is 1-for-2 with a home run in his limited sample size against New York’s ace. As for his next at-bat or two, it’s a guessing game. But if he can get on base, I’m confident that the National League can bring him in. Batting behind Acuna Jr. are Freeman, Betts, Martinez, Nolan Arenado and Luis Arraez, to name a few. I don’t anticipate a lot of scoring, but Acuna Jr. has a great chance to cross the plate.
Don’t miss my All-Star Game YRFI/NRFI best bet!
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