Just because it’s the all-star break doesn’t mean we get a break from the YRFI/NRFI market! The most exciting bet in baseball is available to bet on during the All-Star Game, and I’ve taken a look at the starting pitching matchup, starting lineups and the past scores to find my best bet for the first inning. After a deep dive into some stats and history, I’ve found my opening frame bet for the Midsummer Classic. And hey, make sure you also check out our MLB All-Star Game predictions for tonight’s big matchup.
MLB All-Star Game National League vs American League: NRFI (-120)
Available at Bet365 Sportsbook at time of publishing.
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If this was the regular season and Gerrit Cole was facing Zac Gallen, the NRFI price would probably be around -170. However, the price is a moderate -120 at most sportsbooks, and that’s thanks to the hitters that Cole and Gallen have to face. The American League is the home team which means Cole will be on the mound first to face Ronald Acuna Jr., Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez and Nolan Arenado. Hopefully, he doesn’t need to get to Martinez or Arenado, because if he does, I will be sweating bullets way earlier than I would like. But here’s how the top 5 in the National League order have fared against Cole in their careers:
Ronald Acuna Jr.: 1-for-2 with 1 XBH
Freddie Freeman: 7-for-20 with 4 XBH and 7 K’s
Mookie Betts: 7-for-17 with 1 XBH and 1 K
J.D. Martinez: 8-for-43 with 5 XBH and 18 K’s
Nolan Arenado: 10-for-22 with 5 XBH and 1 K
I’ll be the first to admit that those career splits don’t go great with the NRFI. Each hitter, except Martinez, has found success against Cole during their career. However, maybe the majority of those hits came against Cole in their 2nd or 3rd at-bat against him in a game. On Tuesday, they only get one at-bat against New York’s ace. And Cole hasn’t exactly been a slouch in the first inning this season either — he’s limited hitters to a .197 average with a 38% strikeout rate in the opening frame. So the best case scenario is Cole doesn’t even get to Martinez or Arenado at the top half of the inning and it ends without a run.
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Now we’re onto the bottom half of the inning. That means Gallen will toe the rubber against the American League, and he will have to face Marcus Semien, Shohei Ohtani, Randy Arozarena, Corey Seager and Yandy Diaz. Let’s break down how each hitter has done against Gallen in their careers:
Marcus Semien: 3-for-5 with 1 XBH
Shohei Ohtani: 0-for-3 with 2 K’s
Randy Arozarena: 0-for-2
Corey Seager: 6-for-18 with 1 XBH and 5 K’s
Yandy Diaz: 1-for-3
Compared to the National League, the AL has barely any at-bats against Gallen. That is absolutely an advantage to the Arizona ace, who has been great against most members of the AL lineup but has struggled against the Texas Rangers lineup from time to time. Regardless, Gallen has been dominant in the first frame this season. He has surrendered just 4 first-inning runs all season and has limited hitters to just a .589 OPS. This will be Gallen’s first All-Star Game of his 5-year career, and I’m expecting him to want to put on a show. It wouldn’t surprise me to see 4 of the 6 outs in the first inning come by way of a strikeout. Four of the last 5 All-Star Games have started with a scoreless first inning, and I’m backing the trend and taking the NRFI in Seattle.
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