MLB 2024 Division Winner Predictions & Odds for EVERY Division: Don't doubt the Orioles

Baltimore Orioles third baseman Gunnar Henderson (2) celebrates with teammates after the game against the Boston Red Sox at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

Ahaan Rungta

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NBA & MLB writer for Pickswise, also specializing in NFL betting and fantasy football. Rungta also works in analytics & betting for PlayerProfiler. For Ahaan Rungta media enquiries, please email contact@pickswise.com.

American League West

AL West Winner Odds

Houston Astros -115
Texas Rangers +210
Seattle Mariners +300
Los Angeles Angels +4500
Oakland Athletics +25000

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.

The American League West may be one of the most competitive in its top tier when the season is all said and done. The Los Angeles Angels seek to find direction in the absence of Shohei Ohtani and the Oakland Athletics would be fortunate to not have the worst record in baseball. However, with each of the last two World Series winners coming from this division in the Houston Astros and the Texas Rangers, and the re-emerging Seattle Mariners also hanging around nearing making the postseason in 2023, it is clear that the AL West is a three-headed monster. The Astros open up as the favorites at nearly even-money while the Rangers and Mariners follow in betting odds.

Last year, the Astros took the division in a tiebreaker situation and in the offseason, they remained relatively passive. Their only primary addition to the roster was closer Josh Hader and their other notable transaction was replacing manager Dusty Baker with former bench coach Joe Espada. Houston’s rotation has a plethora of concerns, particularly with health, as Justin Verlander will begin the season on the injured list and Lance McCullers Jr. targets a return in late June. The Astros’ offense could have to do a bulk of their work as they retained their entire lineup that ranked #5 in MLB in wRC+ last season.

The World Series champion Rangers, who won 90 games last season (the same number as the Astros) are not expected to be significantly different in composition. Like the Astros, the core of their roster has been retained and they will also have pitching question marks as Jacob deGrom eyes an August return and Max Scherzer eyes a June return. However, where Texas got the upper hand this offseason was in welcoming depth. They signed starting pitcher Tyler Mahle to a two-year deal and relief pitcher David Robertson to a one-year deal. They will now also have a full season from rookie postseason sensation outfielder Evan Carter and could call up 2024 first round draft pick Wyatt Langford early in this year’s regular season. Texas’ offense ranked #4 in wRC+ in last year’s regular season and #2 in hard-hit rate and could be significantly improved in

As for the Mariners, they remain dark horses to not just make it back to the postseason but also cause some noise if they get there due to their high-ceiling power offense and starting rotation—but also continue to carry high volatility. Seattle was also the most active team in their division during the offseason. Although they traded away veteran power bat Eugenio Suárez, they added depth to an already-good bullpen by signing Ryne Stanek to a one-year deal and trading for Gregory Santos, one of the best relievers in MLB per last season’s peripherals. They also added thump to their offense by buying low on infielders Luis Urías and Luke Raley, bringing back outfielder Mitch Haniger, and trading for infielder Jorge Polanco.

Seattle is still young and carries high upside and last season, they ranked #8 in wRC+ as an offense and #4 in SIERA as a pitching staff. They remain contenders but will need to see breakouts from at least of their back-end starters (Bryce Miller, Bryan Woo, and Emerson Hancock) to realize their division title upside.

AL West Winner Pick: Texas Rangers

Although the Rangers are a good candidate, the uncertainty with their rotation as well as the possibility of the Astros adding more as the season starts (such as Cy Young winner Blake Snell) means Vegas is likely sharp on the market for now and it is unnecessary to force a bet here.

Our expert has 2024 MLB World Series picks at +2000 and +4500 odds!

American League Central

AL Central Winner Odds

Minnesota Twins -125
Cleveland Guardians +330
Detroit Tigers +360
Kansas City Royals +950
Chicago White Sox +5000

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.

This division may be the worst in baseball when it comes to overall talent and championship contention. The Minnesota Twins rightfully open up as the favorites; they have won the division in three of the last five seasons, including 2023. However, they have lost key pieces that got them to the postseason last season. After losing starting pitchers Sonny Gray and Tyler Mahle, Minnesota may struggle to find consistency in the back half of their rotation as they bank on a breakout from Chris Paddack, a steady season from veteran Anthony Desclafani, and consistency from Louie Varland. While the Twins’ lineup possesses a great power ceiling if they can remain healthy, there are also glaring holes. Will a platoon of Alex Kirilloff and the aging Carlos Santana really be able to hold down the fort at first base? Will Max Kelper be able to replicate his best career season from last year at age 31? Will manager Rocco Baldelli properly manage his catching situation? There wasn’t much evidence throughout the end of last season that Minnesota will dramatically make upgrades in these departments and their volatility poses a window for other teams. However, the competition is far from dangerous.

The Cleveland Guardians and Detroit Tigers appear next in odds to win the division but Cleveland did not show much interest in progressing in their window of contention this offseason. Cleveland’s offense ranked #22 in MLB in wRC+ and #30 in ISO; their contact-heavy team is simply not good enough to be a serious threat to aces in the league and after José Ramírez, there simply isn’t enough power upside in their lineup to think the Guardians can be anything but a bottom-of-the-barrel offense once again. Cleveland’s biggest strength lies in their starting rotation—Shane Bieber is in a contract year, Triston McKenzie could be the healthiest he has ever been, and Gavin Williams and Tanner Bibee showed signs of upside late last year. Overall, Cleveland is far from a contender but could be in contention in this poor division solely due to their lights-out rotation.

The Tigers were more active addressing areas of need. Last year, Detroit’s bullpen was one of the most pleasant surprises in the league but their starting rotation was just downright average. Now, they seek a full healthy season from future ace Tarik Skubal and former top prospect Case Mize, have a great #2 option in Kenta Maeda, and have added depth, leadership, and upside in Jack Flaherty. They also made a couple of sneaky moves with their lackluster offense by picking up veterans Mark Canha and Gio Urshela to back up a potential breakout from Riley Greene. Detroit’s offense will be far from elite but should expect some regression to the mean as they were the fourth-unluckiest offense in baseball per difference in xwOBA and actual xwOBA last season. Their well-balanced roster combined with the experience of manager A.J. Hinch puts them in contention for the division should things go south in Minneapolis.

wOBA is an offensive stat that measures quality of contact and measures how players reach base. xwOBA attempts to correct for luck.

Most unlucky 2023 regular season offenses in #MLB (by worst actual wOBA minus xwOBA):

New York Yankees
Kansas City Royals
Detroit Tigers pic.twitter.com/SsxMtYDgIF

— Ahaan Rungta (@AhaanRungta) March 21, 2024

As for the remainder of the division, the Chicago White Sox are more likely to be in contention for the worst record in baseball than a division title as they look to rebuild, and the Kansas City Royals being viewed as a dark horse may be a complete smokescreen—although they were wildly active during the offseason, none of their additions carry high upside. Kansas City’s primary headline should be the potential breakout of starting pitcher Cole Ragans but behind him, there are no certainties as their rotation contains some of the worst projected peripherals in the league in Michael Wacha, Jordan Lyles, and Alec Marsh. In addition, they overpaid for multiple volatile relievers and only added the inconsistent power bat Hunter Renfroe to an offense that ranked #28 in wRC+ last season.

AL Central Winner Pick: Minnesota Twins

AL Central Winner Best Bet: Detroit Tigers (+360)

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.

While the Twins are still the most established roster in baseball, the implied 21.7% probability for Detroit to win their first division title since 2014 is too low. They would likely need full health from their rotation to have a shot at it but if they remain in contention throughout the season, they have the option to be aggressive at the Trade Deadline to go for it given that there is no clear-cut frontrunner in the AL Central.

Read our MLB Player Award best bets for this season, including a +1800 longshot!

American League East

AL East Winner Odds

New York Yankees +165
Baltimore Orioles +200
Toronto Blue Jays +380
Tampa Bay Rays +550
Boston Red Sox +1900

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.

Last season, the AL East was viewed as arguably the most competitive division in the sport. With the Yankees and their high payroll always holding high expectations, the Rays reputed for analytical mastery, and the Blue Jays and Red Sox being active in the offseason, it was the Baltimore Orioles that stunned the public by winning their first division title since 2014. The scariest part of that performance was that they did it primarily with talent that will be with the organization for the foreseeable future.

Baltimore had six hitters with at least 300 plate appearances and a wRC+ north of 110 and all six remained with the team this offseason. Additionally, their bullpen ranked #5 in MLB in SIERA and although they lost closer Félix Bautista, they replaced him with Craig Kimbrel and additional depth with the high-quality peripherals of Kaleb Ort. Their biggest weakness last season was their mediocre starting rotation that ended up being the reason they could not win a single game in the postseason. The organization noticed that and did their job in the offseason by adding one of the league’s nastiest pitchers in Corbin Burnes; however, the good news continues for the Orioles as they know enter the season with a healthy John Means and hopefully a full season of rising star Grayson Rodriguez. Although this rotation is not perfect, especially with help concerns surrounding Kyle Bradish, it is clearly better than it was last season when Baltimore still found a way to win 101 games.

Meanwhile, the rest of the division is full of question marks across the board. The Yankees are favorites for the division and did work to improve their lineup in the offseason with the additions of Alex Verdugo, Trent Grisham, and Juan Soto. However, their rotation is a complete wild card as the ace Gerrit Cole starts the season with health concerns and their only major addition was the declining repertoire of Marcus Stroman.

The Rays lost multiple franchise cornerstones, carry injury issues in the rotation, and were not active adding depth in the offseason as they usually are. The Red Sox attempted to stay afloat by lateral moves in the offseason but most of their acquisitions enter the season with major injury concerns. Finally, the Blue Jays were flat-out passive in the offseason, doing nothing to address a power outage in their lineup, and not adding depth to their pitching staff—a major concern given that Kevin Gausman is not perfectly healthy entering the season.

AL East Winner Pick: Baltimore Orioles

AL Central Winner Best Bet: Baltimore Orioles (+200)

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1.5u wager.

Baltimore won the division in 2023 by two games and was ahead of the third place Blue Jays by 12 games. The Yankees did improve and at their peak, they are contenders for the division. However, the pricing of this division’s market is simply off as New York does not deserve to be the favorite—Baltimore does. We will buy in on the best team in the division at a discount.

Scoop up some value with our 2024 MLB season longshot predictions

National League West

NL West Winner Odds

Los Angeles Dodgers -600
San Diego Padres +1100
Arizona Diamondbacks +1100
San Francisco Giants +1200
Colorado Rockies +20000

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.

The headliner of the NL West is by far the World Series favorite Los Angeles Dodgers. After already winning 100 regular season games last year, the Dodgers proceeded to have the most active offseason in MLB, adding international free agent starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto, trading for ace Tyler Glasnow, acquiring veteran starter James Paxton, and replacing J.D. Martinez with Teoscar Hernández. A team whose pitching staff ranked #10 in MLB in SIERA and whose offense ranked #3 in wRC+ just became better on both sides of the field and even with Ohtani not pitching in 2024, they are clearly the best roster in baseball at peak and are rightfully heavy favorites to win another division title.

In addition to the Dodgers’ dominance, there should also be a lot of easy series wins on the table thanks to the Colorado Rockies, who are in contention for the worst record in baseball. Where it gets interesting is a fight in the middle of the pack between the reigning pennant-winning Arizona Diamondbacks, the San Diego Padres, and the San Francisco Giants.

Arizona spent the offseason adding a couple of veteran names in Eduardo Rodríguez, Joc Pederson, Eugenio Suárez, Randal Grichuk—this addresses the lack of power in their lineup from last season and adds another arm to an otherwise shallow rotation.

San Diego is perhaps the most volatile team in the division; they just lost Cy Young winner Blake Snell in free agency and already lost Juan Soto but decided to stay competitive by trading for potential ace Dylan Cease. However, their entire rotation reeks of inconsistency and aging skillsets and the Padres’ roster could deeply suffer if there are major health concerns.

Meanwhile, San Francisco may just be the most interesting team in baseball. While they already have a great one-two punch in the rotation in newly-acquired Blake Snell and Logan Webb, a full season from star prospect Kyle Harrison could give them a rotation that is as good as the second-best in the division. Additionally, San Francisco added Matt Chapman, Jung Hoo Lee, and Jorge Soler to pad a lineup that struggled last year, especially after the All-Star break. Breakouts from high-caliber prospect Marco Luciano and underrated catcher Patrick Bailey would only give San Francisco an additional bump in ceiling and a possible spot in the playoffs—the Giants just may be the dark horse of the National League in 2024 in the long run.

NL West Winner Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers not only have some of the best players in baseball but also depth that they lacked in the last couple of years. Even with health concerns, they should have a commanding grasp of the division given the glaring floors of others in the division. They are rightfully -600 to win the division and there is no need to force a bet on another team here.

Our expert also has 3 MLB win total best bets to target for the 2024 season

National League Central

NL Central Winner Odds

St. Louis Cardinals +150
Chicago Cubs +200
Cincinnati Reds +400
Milwaukee Brewers +700
Pittsburgh Pirates +1200

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.

Just like their American League counterpoints, the Central division in the National League is far from dominant.

The St. Louis Cardinals open the season as favorites to take the title but like all their divisional foes, St. Louis has glaring weaknesses after their roster turnover this offseason. After a hot start to the season offensively where the Cardinals displayed their high offensive ceiling, the floor became imminent as they finished the season just middle-of-the-pack in wRC+ and ISO. Granted, they were slightly unlucky with results, per difference in wOBA and xwOBA, and should see some positive regression. However, a passive offseason does no favors to a lineup filled with aging skillsets and St. Louis’ only notable offensive moves this winter were two left-handed bats well past their prime in Brandon Crawford and Matt Carpenter. The biggest issue on their roster, however, is in their terribly low-ceiling starting rotation, which consists mostly of veterans with below-league average peripherals in 2023 (Miles Mikolas, Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson, Drew Rom, and Zack Thompson). Their only reliable starter could be the ace Sonny Gray, but Gray will start the season on the injured list—a complete mess in St. Louis opens the doors for others to get a head start in the division.

The Chicago Cubs were one of the streakiest teams in the big leagues in 2023. They saw a teased breakout from Christopher Morel and Seiya Suzuki on their way to ranking #12 as an offense in wRC+. They rode a Cy Young-caliber season from Justin Steele and Marcus Stroman’s elite #2-starter performance season to rank #13 as a rotation in xFIP. In the offseason, they made a key move by bringing back power bat Cody Bellinger and their biggest changes were in replacing Marcus Stroman with Shota Imanaga and hiring Craig Counsell as their new manager. Where the Cubs should see concern is that Steele could be due for regression as his peripherals had a falloff at the end of the regular season. Overall as a pitching staff, they were the fourth-luckiest quality of contact team by difference in wOBA and xwOBA, and their bullpen is still not deep. Chicago could add at the trade deadline, especially since this division should remain a competitive battle, but their flaws give them a dangerously low floor.

The Cincinnati Reds are next in the pecking order for odds to win the NL Central. One of the best offensive stories of the sport at the end of last year, they ranked #7 in wRC+ as a team following the All Star break in 2023. Missing the playoffs was both a feature of inexperience and inconsistency and a lack of health in their pitching stuff. Any positive regression in that department would bode well for a staff with a high ceiling and arguably the best depth in the division. Cincinnati’s staff is headlined by one of the best young arms in the league by Stuff+ (Hunter Greene), one of Cincinnati’s top prospects over the last few years (Nick Lodolo), one of the breakout rookie pitchers of 2023 (Andrew Abbott), and high-ceiling backend arms in Graham Ashcraft, Frankie Montas, and Nick Martinez. In addition to that core, Cincinnati’s bullpen is one of the deepest in the league in terms of combinations of arm angles and repertoire.

Reds rotation SIERA, Stuff+ in 2023

Hunter Greene: 3.74, 124
Nick Lodolo: 3.46, 97
Graham Ashcraft: 4.80, 128

The least discussed elite-ceiling Big 3 in #MLB. pic.twitter.com/b071sVF8fh

— Ahaan Rungta (@AhaanRungta) March 22, 2024

The Milwaukee Brewers and Pittsburgh Pirates make up the bottom tier of the division. With Milwaukee looking to retool following the trade of Corbin Burnes and a season-ending injury to Brandon Woodruff, and their only notable offensive additions being Gary Sánchez and Rhys Hoskins, the organization’s priority should turn to seeing what they have with prospects like reliever Abner Uribe and Jackson Chourio. While those high-end names could pan out as soon as 2024, this team is not deep enough to combine for a 90-win season. The Pirates are in a similar boat but even more shallow. Although Pittsburgh sees promise in rising stars like Mitch Keller and Oneil Cruz, they easily possess the lowest floor in the division overall after their offense ranked bottom-10 in wRC+ and their pitching staff ranked bottom-10 in SIERA last season.

NL Central Winner Pick: Cincinnati Reds

NL Central Winner Best Bet: Cincinnati Reds (+400)

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.

The team in this division with the highest ceiling when considering both pitching talent and offensive talent at peak health is the young, high-pedigree prospect-farmed Cincinnati Reds. Their implied 20.0% probability of piecing it all together as early as 2024 is dsirespectful and we will gladly buy in on the future being new in Great American Ballpark.

National League East

NL East Winner Odds

Atlanta Braves -280
Philadelphia Phillies +280
New York Mets +1300
Miami Marlins +3500
Washington Nationals +12000

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.

Similar to the NL West, the East has clear tiers. The perennially-contending Atlanta Braves at -280 are heavy favorites to win this division, rightfully so, as they are contenders to claim the best offense in baseball once again and this offseason, they looked to address a dire need of pitching by acquiring backend arm Reynaldo López and veteran starter Chris Sale. Atlanta’s elite offensive core, which showed no signs of regression all year long, should be good enough keep the Braves in contention not just for the division but also the best record in the National League. Any improvement in pitching and added health from #2 starter Max Fried would lock them up for another division title.

The Miami Marlins and Washington Nationals continue to retool and may not even challenge .500 records; the two other divisions looking to contend in this division are the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets.

Although the Phillies have recently stepped it up in the playoffs, their regular season roster continues to be intrinsically flawed as they lack high-upside depth in their pitching staff and made no additions to their position player group to improve a lackluster defensive squad. Signing Aaron Nola to an extension was a move to keep Philadelphia in the running for what they have been recently—a Wild Card team that could be dangerous in a short series.

Meanwhile, the Mets have big names with high ceiling in Kodai Senga out of rotation and Francisco Alvarez, Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, Brett Baty, Starling Marte, and Harrison Bader. However, their lack of depth and refusal to replace starters appropriately keeps their division-winning ceiling away from them. A back end of the rotation comprising of Luis Severino, José Quintana, Sean Manaea, Adrian Houser, and Tylor Megill gives them an inning-eating floor but no real ceiling as none of those pitchers have had encouraging repertoire peripherals over the last few years.

NL East Winner Pick: Atlanta Braves

Like the Dodgers, the Braves are the only team in their division in serious contention to be the best team in the league. It makes little sense to buy the implied 73.7% in case Atlanta sees some regression with health but it also would be a fairly meaningless endeavor trying to guess if the Phillies or Mets can shock the world in 2024. Don’t force a bet in this division.