The all-star weekend festivities have begun! This year the venue is T-Mobile Park in Seattle, Washington. As usual, the Futures game is the first event, and that took place on Saturday. If you weren’t able to tune in to the game, just know that the future of baseball is in good hands. Next up on the schedule is the Home Run Derby on Monday night, and that’s always a fan favorite for obvious reasons. Instead of watching a regular season game hoping to see a single home run, the Home Run Derby is expected to have hundreds of homers (no, literally). The over/under for the number of home runs hit on Monday night is 276.5 at DraftKings.
There are a plethora of betting options for the derby, like head-to-head matchups, most homers in the first round, longest home run, and of course, the winner. In this article, I’ll break down the odds for the winner of the Home Run Derby along with a preview of each contestant, my best bet for the winner and my best bet for the entire event. So, let’s get right into it!
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Everybody’s in!
Who will be the 2023 @TMobile Home Run Derby champ?
Compete to win: https://t.co/e6gtYdSCZe pic.twitter.com/8xrUWMq7cP
— MLB (@MLB) July 6, 2023
MLB 2023 Home Run Derby Winner Odds
We have 8 home run hitters for the derby, and here are each contestant’s odds, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Pete Alonso (+300)
A 2-time winner of the Home Run Derby returns as the favorite this year in Seattle. Alonso won in 2019 in Cleveland and then in 2021 in Colorado, but his success came to a screeching halt in 2022 in Los Angeles. However, Alonso is back and ready to be crowned the winner once again.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+365)
You might be surprised to see Vladdy with only 13 home runs at the all-star break. Toronto’s big bat hit 48 homers in 2021 and then 32 in 2022, so he’s still a home-run threat, but it’s slightly concerning to see his home-run numbers down so much. And isn’t it crazy that his first home run at home this season came on June 23??
Luis Robert Jr. (+500)
Arguably the most exciting contender in the derby this year is Luis Robert Jr. This guy makes you forget about the embarrassment that is the Chicago White Sox’s season. At the break, he has 26 home runs thanks to a 15.6% barrel rate and 36.4% sweet-spot rate. Oh, and did I mention he absolutely crushes the ball?
Julio Rodriguez (+550)
The derby is in Seattle, so you know Julio Rodriguez had to return to participate in front of his home crowd. Last year in Los Angeles, J-Rod finished as the runner-up behind Juan Soto, but let’s not forget he had back-to-back rounds of 30+ home runs. This guy can rake!
Adolis Garcia (+650)
There’s not one, not two, not three, not four, but FIVE Texas Rangers players in the American League starting lineup on Tuesday. One of the five is Adolis Garcia, Texas’ cleanup hitter, who is participating in the derby as well. The outfielder has 23 home runs at the break, but — interestingly enough — he would have 29 if he played every game at T-Mobile Park.
Randy Arozarena (+950)
It’s been 5 months since the World Baseball Classic, but nobody has forgotten about the magic in Randy Arozarena’s bat during the tournament. His tear at the plate has continued in the regular season as he’s accumulated 16 home runs and 58 RBIs at the break. But his power has been going down in recent weeks, and that’s why you can find him at near 10/1 odds.
Mookie Betts (+1000)
If you’re looking for a value bet, look no further than Mookie Betts. The Dodgers right fielder has 26 home runs and 23 doubles at the break but finds himself at 10/1 odds to win on Monday night. This derby is also coming at a great time for Betts since he’s hitting .345 with a 1.390 OPS and 4 home runs in July.
Adley Rutschman (+1700)
Baltimore’s pride and joy finds himself on the outside looking in for the derby. You can find his odds around 17/1, depending on the sportsbook, and a big reason for that is he’s matched up against Luis Robert Jr. in the first round. But, who knows…crazier things have happened at the derby!
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MLB 2023 Home Run Derby Winner Best Bet: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+365)
Am I concerned about 13 total home runs in 88 games? Sure. Is the Home Run Derby completely different from a regular season game? Absolutely. Instead of triple-digit fastballs above the zone and wipeout sliders low and away, Guerrero will be getting literal batting practice pitches. And as we know with Vladdy, he wants the ball middle and inside so that he can pull the ball. Of his 13 home runs, here are his home runs by zone:
Pulling the ball will be key to Guerrero Jr.’s success at T-Mobile Park. It’s a park that is generous to right-handed hitters who aim for the pole, and 10 of Vladdy’s 13 home runs have been to the left side of the stands. And if he played all 88 games of the first half of the season at T-Mobile Park, he would have 16 homers instead of 13. Although his home run total has been down, his hard-hit rate has actually been dramatically higher. In the first half of the year, Guerrero Jr. had the most hard-hit balls (95+ MPH off the bat) of any American League player. And here’s the emotional kicker: if Vladdy wins, he and his dad would become the first father-son duo in MLB history to win the Home Run Derby. Because of that, I know Guerrero Jr. is going to go all out.
MLB 2023 Home Run Derby Best Bet: Luis Robert Jr. to make the final (+170)
On one side of the bracket are Luis Robert Jr., Adley Rutschman, Randy Arozarena and Adolis Garcia. That leaves Pete Alonso, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Julio Rodriguez and Mookie Betts on the other side. No offense to the first side, but any group with Alonso, Vladdy and Mookie is better. On that side of the bracket, I truly have no idea who’s going to come out victorious. However, I think there’s a clear favorite on the first side. Robert Jr. is facing Rutschman in the first round and is a -240 favorite to advance to the second round, and that’s not too surprising since Rutschman has only 12 home runs at the break. That means Robert Jr. would face either Arozarena or Garcia in the second round, and I’m leaning toward it being Garcia. Since May 23, Arozarena has just 5 home runs. His power isn’t there, and I think he’s going to try and adjust his launch angle and end up popping up a lot.
So if it’s between Robert Jr. and Garcia, I’m absolutely taking the Chicago slugger. He has 5 total hits at T-Mobile Park in his career which include 2 doubles and 1 home run. The park’s dimensions heavily favor right-handed hitters, and when looking at Robert Jr.’s spray chart, almost every extra-base hit is in left or center field. His swing is perfect for Seattle’s stadium, so I’m a fan of Robert Jr. to make the finals at +170 odds.
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