Ricky Dimon
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The first chapter of the Sunshine Double came and went in Indian Wells, California over the past 2 weeks. Now the best tennis players in the world are taking their talents to South Beach for the Miami Open. March Madness refers to college basketball’s postseason, but it would also be an accurate description of the tennis calendar. Masters 1000s are the second-highest level of tournaments on tour and both Indian Wells and Miami qualify as such.
Going into Indian Wells I cashed Daniil Medvedev in both Rotterdam and Dubai. I rolled with him again in the desert and he reached the final but fell a win short of the title, losing to top seed Carlos Alcaraz.
Let’s take a look at the odds and my best bets to be made for the Miami Open on both the men’s and women’s sides.
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ATP Indian Wells odds
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Carlos Alcaraz +200
Daniil Medvedev +275
Jannik Sinner +1000
Stefanos Tsitsipas +1400
Alexander Zverev +2500
Andrey Rublev +2800
Taylor Fritz +2800
Hubert Hurkacz +3400
Felix Auger-Aliassime +3400
Camero Norrie +3400
Casper Ruud +3400
Holger Rune +3900
Frances Tiafoe +3900
3-star value play: Jannik Sinner (+1000)
Even as the third favorite, at +1000 odds I think there is good value on Jannik Sinner. I’m not overly enthused by +200 and +275 prices on Alcaraz and Medvedev, respectively, despite the fact that they are clearly the best players in the world outside of Novak Djokovic, who is not playing in Miami due to being banned from entering the United States. Sinner is on fire right now; his last 3 results are a title in Montpellier, a runner-up finish in Rotterdam and a semifinal showing in Indian Wells, where he lost to Alcaraz in 2 competitive sets. The 21-year-old Italian reached the Miami final in 2021, so he clearly knows how to win at this tournament. It’s also worth noting that Sinner wouldn’t have to play Alcaraz until the semis and Medvedev until the title match, so his draw is favorable.
2-star value play: Felix Auger-Aliassime (+1900)
Ideally I want to stay away from guys who are near Alcaraz or Medvedev in the draw – and also near Sinner since he is my top pick to win. Auger-Aliassime fits the bill, as he finds himself in the bottom quarter of the bracket with #2 seed Stefanos Tsitsipas and away from the aforementioned 3 players. Tsitsipas is struggling with a shoulder injury, so his outlook for Miami is mediocre at best. Auger-Aliassime, who is coming off a quarterfinal run in Indian Wells, where he lost to Alcaraz in 2 entertaining sets, should be able to capitalize. The Canadian reached the semis of this event in 2019 and that was when he was only 18.
1-star value play: Taylor Fritz (+2500)
I have been on the Taylor Fritz bandwagon plenty of times before and I’m not about to get off it. Even though his 1,000 points from winning Indian Wells last year have come off the board, he is still in the top 10 of the rankings. The 25-year-old American is 17-5 this season and has not lost a single match prior a deciding set. He recently made it back to the Indian Wells quarterfinals, stopped only by Sinner in a high-quality, 3-set battle. Don’t be shocked if Fritz’s second career Masters 1000 title is incoming.
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WTA Miami odds
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Iga Swiatek +220
Aryna Sabalenka +650
Elena Rybakina +8000
Jessica Pegula +1100
Barbora Krejcikova +1100
Coco Gauff +2000
Belinda Bencic +2200
Veronika Kudermetova +2800
Maria Sakkari +2800
Caroline Garcia +3500
Ons Jabeur +3500
Qinwen Zheng +3500
Victoria Azarenka +4000
Emma Raducanu +5000
Karolina Pliskova +5000
Donna Vekic +5000
Madison Keys +5000
3-star value play: Aryna Sabalenka (+650)
Although world #1 Iga Swiatek has been dominant at times in 2023, Aryna Sabalenka has been the best and most consistent player over the course of almost 3 months. The world #2 is 17-2 this season with a title at the Australian Open and a runner-up performance this past fortnight in Indian Wells. Conditions in the desert weren’t great for her big-hitting game; they were slow, windy and even somewhat cold. They should be much better for her in Miami; warmer and faster. In a relatively soft bottom half of the bracket, Sabalenka’s path to the final – and ultimately to the title – looks manageable.
2-star value play: Paula Badosa (+8000)
Outside of Swiatek, Sabalenka and maybe Indian Wells champion Elena Rybakina, nobody has a great chance to take the Miami title. As such, why bet on anyone who is a relatively short favorite (such as in the +1100 to +4000 range) to win it? You might as well go big when it’s pretty much a crapshoot among everyone else other than the top 3. That is the plan with Paula Badosa, who peaked as high as #2 in the world last season but has been plagued by injuries since the start of the summer. The Spaniard is healthy now, though. In 2022 she advanced to the semis in Indian Wells and the quarters in Miami, so she enjoys this time of year on American hard courts.
1-star value play: Petra Kvitova (+10000)
Not unlike Auger-Aliassime, Petra Kvitova is an all-or-nothing kind of player. Those types are always good for futures bets, as there is no difference between losing your first match and losing in the final. Kvitova can always lose to anyone on any given day and also beat anyone at any time. The 33-year-old Czech wields a huge game that has carried her to 2 Wimbledon titles and conditions in Miami are favorable. She is a 3-time quarterfinalist and has not lost prior to the fourth round since 2016. Kvitova would not run into Sabalenka until the semifinals and either Swiatek or Rybakina until the final, so her draw is a good one.
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