Are you missing baseball, too? For those that don’t know me, hello! My name is Keith Schmelter and I was the most profitable MLB writer on the Pickswise staff last season. I finished +37.6 units on money line/run line picks, +52.9 units on game totals, and +39.3 units (21-6-1) on 3-star plays for Pickswise. I’m a diehard baseball fan with an even greater passion for statistics who loves to watch and bet on baseball. I will be analyzing every MLB team and giving my predictions for their 2022 season.
Continuing in the NL East, let’s break down the Miami Marlins.
Miami Marlins breakdown
2022 World Series odds: +8000
2022 NL East odds: +1400
2021 record: 67-95
2021 O/U record: 72-80-10
Key players in: Jorge Soler (RF), Avisail Garcia (OF), Joey Wendle (2B), Jacob Stallings (C)
Key players out: Jorge Alfaro (C), Zach Thompson (SP)
Story of last season
For the 11th time in the last 12 years, the Marlins finished below .500. They had obvious weaknesses that held them back from winning, including their offense — which was truly abysmal. Miami finished 27th in batting average, 29th in on-base percentage, and 29th in OPS, which is why the team averaged the second-fewest runs per game in 2021. And when a Marlins player got hot, he was traded. Both Starling Marte and Adam Duvall were dealt at the deadline last year, which sent Miami into full tank mode during the second half of the season.
The Marlins have a future star in Trevor Rogers. The rookie had a 2.64 ERA and a 2.55 FIP in 25 starts last season, which earned him an all-star nomination and a runner-up finish in the NL Rookie of the Year voting. He was one of the few bright spots Miami had in 2021, but he was fascinating to watch. Although there were a lot more negatives than positives for the Marlins in 2021, could the Marlins surprise some people in 2022?
Miami Marlins 2022 MLB season predictions
I love the Marlins’ starting rotation. Rogers, Sandy Alcantara and Pablo Lopez make up a strong 1-2-3 punch for Miami and Jesus Luzardo could be a strong 4th starter if he finds his command. Alcantara has been the Marlins ace for about 4 years now and has one of the best pitching arsenals in the league. His sinker can reach 101 mph and his changeup had an average velocity of 91.8 MPH last season — which is absurd. The ace has posted an ERA below 3.20 for two consecutive seasons and will no doubt play a large factor in Miami’s success in 2022.
As mentioned above, the Marlins’ offense was dreadful in 2021. However, they made a series of moves this offseason such as signing Jorge Soler and Avisail Garcia while also trading for Joey Wendle and Jacob Stallings. Soler will add an instant power boost to the Marlins’ order, as the World Series MVP hit 27 home runs and accumulated 70 RBIs in 2021. Stallings is an upgrade on both sides of the ball from Jorge Alfaro and Wendle is an excellent contact hitter who can play pretty much any position besides pitcher and catcher.
The Marlins’ middle infield has a lot of potential. Jazz Chisholm Jr. is paired with Miguel Rojas to make a flashy team, but Chisholm Jr. needs to work on his approach at the plate. The rookie finished 2021 with a 28.6% strikeout rate while also ranking in the 17th percentile for whiff rate. His on-field swagger and attempts at making baseball more youth-friendly make him likable, but he needs to be a better contact hitter if he’s going to hit leadoff.
Miami’s biggest challenge will be its division. The Marlins are going to face the new-look Mets, the reigning champion Braves, the offensive juggernaut Phillies, and the young but powerful Nationals a total of 76 times in 2022. That’s at least 40 losses right there, so they will need to capitalize on their non-division series. Long story short: this isn’t the Marlins year.
2022 MLB season team previews
Check out the rest of our team previews for the upcoming baseball season!
AL East
AL Central
AL West
NL East
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