We’ve got a crunch game here in the AFC East between the Miami Dolphins and Green Bay Packers, with both teams fighting hard to reach the playoffs. Both teams can make it if they just win out, but that is a lot easier said than done. Which team will keep their postseason hopes alive and kicking? Our expert has their picks, predictions and best bets for this Dolphins vs Patriots matchup.
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NFL Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots expert predictions
The Dolphins will be without starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa in this game, but there’s a chance that this Miami team still has the offensive edge over the Patriots. New England’s offense has taken a nosedive in recent weeks and there are serious questions now being asked about whether Mac Jones will still be the signal-caller next season. Teddy Bridgewater has proven to be a serviceable QB for the Dolphins and there’s every chance that Miami pulls out the win and eliminates the Patriots in this one.
Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots spread, odds & betting lines
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Point Spread: Dolphins +2, Patriots -2
Total Points Over/Under: 41 points
Money Line Odds: Dolphins +120, Patriots -140
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Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots expert picks
We’ve got 2 standout NFL picks for the clash between the Dolphins and Patriots.
Dolphins vs Patriots point spread pick: Dolphins +2 (-110)
This AFC East battle has become very important as both teams are still in the hunt for the playoffs. It’s quite amazing that either team is still capable of making the playoffs since the Dolphins have lost 4 in a row and the Patriots have lost 4 of their last 5 games. In this scenario, New England needs to win out for the rest of the season to make the postseason. That starts with beating Miami, but the Dolphins also need to win out or have the Jets lose a game. In this crucial matchup, it’s possible that Tua Tagovailoa will not be cleared to play as he’s entered the concussion protocol for the second time of the season. It might be in Tagovailoa’s best interest to sit out, but the Dolphins have not announced a decision yet. I anticipate that Teddy Bridgewater will be the starter on Sunday, and even though they are facing a backup, the Patriots do not deserve to be favorites.
You could argue that it’s been back-to-back weeks with bad luck for the Patriots, but I’m not sold. Last week they scored 18 unanswered points and had the ball with a chance to win in the final minutes, but a fumble ruined the comeback. And we all know about the ending in their Week 14 matchup against the Raiders, so I won’t elaborate on that. The bottom line is Mac Jones is not on the same page with Matt Patricia, which has caused their passing attack to be miserable. It’s clear that Patricia wants to run the ball with Rhamondre Stevenson and do short screen passes that gain a yard or two instead of running a play-action or taking a deep shot down the field. The New England offense is not capable of putting together a 5+ minute drive that finishes with a touchdown, as it seems they consider a field goal a win. I’m staying far away from the Patriots, even if that means backing the Dolphins without Tua.
Be sure to check out our full Dolphins vs Patriots predictions
Dolphins vs Patriots Over/Under totals pick: Under 41 (-110)
The total can never be low enough when the Patriots are playing. The under has hit in 6 of their last 8 games, and it’s because their team is a perfect fit for the under. Their defense has been one of the better units in the league led by Matthew Judon as they allow the 5th fewest points per game. And their offense has been embarrassing, as Rhamondre Stevenson has been the heart and soul of their offensive production.
Mac Jones has not been on the same page with the Patriots coaching staff and his receivers which has caused a lot of short drives that end with a lot of frustration on the New England side. On the other sideline, if Miami is without Tua, it will affect their scoring production. Having Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle to throw to will help Teddy Bridgewater, yet it’s a downgrade going to the backup quarterback since they don’t have the same chemistry with receivers that the starter does. The under is the way to go in this pivotal AFC East matchup.
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Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots expert predictions
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