NFL Wild Card Weekend continues on Sunday with an all-AFC East matchup between the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills. The Dolphins did secure a victory over the Bills earlier in the season, but Miami is now having to play this game without starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who is out with a concussion. Can the Dolphins defy the odds and beat the Bills, or will Buffalo prove why they are serious Super Bowl contenders with a comfortable win? Our expert has their picks, predictions and best bets for this Dolphins vs Bills matchup.
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NFL Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills expert predictions
The Dolphins have had one of the most up-and-down seasons in history. They started 3-0, then went to 3-3, won their next 5 games, lost their following 5 and then finally beat the Jets in Week 18 to finish 9-8 and secure a spot in the playoffs. Without Tua Tagovailoa they could just about scrape past some teams, but that is unlikely to happen against the Bills. Buffalo has been red-hot all season long and you can bet the likes of Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs will be laser-focused on securing a smooth win here.
Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills spread, odds & betting lines
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Point Spread: Dolphins +13.5, Bills -13.5
Total Points Over/Under: 43.5 points
Money Line Odds: Dolphins +600, Bills -850
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Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills expert picks
We’ve got 2 standout NFL picks for the clash between the Dolphins and Bills.
Dolphins vs Bills point spread pick: Bills -13.5 (-110)
Wild Card Weekend is here at last, and the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills will meet for the third time this season in this first-round playoff matchup. Unfortunately for the Dolphins, Tua Tagovailoa was ruled out on Wednesday — meaning 7th-round rookie Skylar Thompson will get another start. Thompson told the media this week that he is feeling more comfortable with each snap he takes, but I think he will be the opposite of comfortable here on the road against a ferocious Buffalo defense in an environment unlike any in which he has ever played.
I think the moment is going to be a bit big for him, and he doesn’t have the kind of dominant supporting cast to make up for everything like Brock Purdy does with the 49ers. Yes, Miami picked up a win over the Jets in Week 18 to clinch their postseason spot — but it’s not like Thompson had all that much to do with that.
The Dolphins scored just 11 points on the day, as Thompson averaged 4.9 yards per pass attempt. So far on 105 attempts in his rookie season, the Kansas State product has thrown only 1 touchdown while tossing 3 interceptions. He is getting thrown to the wolves this weekend and I have no doubt that Josh Allen and this Buffalo offense will be able to score on a really banged-up Miami secondary. The Bills scored 32 when these teams played a few weeks ago and have put up 35 in each of their past 2 games. They have one of the highest offensive ceilings in the league, so I’m not too worried about their ability to cover a double-digit spread.
Be sure to check out our full Dolphins vs Bills predictions
Dolphins vs Bills Over/Under totals pick: Under 43.5 (-110)
The under also makes some sense because I don’t see the Dolphins scoring much at all. They put up only 11 points in their Week 18 finale against the Jets, and that was a home game. Now they are going on the road into one of the toughest environments to play in across the entire NFL, with a 7th-round rookie quarterback under center. Skylar Thompson is averaging just 5.1 yards per attempt on the season and he has thrown only 1 touchdown all year. He has just 21 total rushing yards, too, so it’s not like he adds anything with his legs — and Miami’s offense has been pretty anemic with him out there. Understandably so.
Whether it has been Thompson or Teddy Bridgewater, this offense just isn’t the same without Tua Tagovailoa. The Bills boast one of the best defenses in the league and just forced New England’s Mac Jones to throw 3 interceptions this past week. In their game right before that, they held Justin Fields to just 119 yards as the Bears scored only 13 points.
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Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills expert predictions
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