Andrew Ortenberg
Show Bio
First off and most importantly, Happy New Year to you and yours. The 2023 NFL regular season is coming to a close, but we’ve still got two more full weeks to look forward to before the playoffs start. And one of the most highly anticipated Week 17 showdowns is this battle between two AFC contenders as the Miami Dolphins take on the Baltimore Ravens.
There’s only one way to properly celebrate this heavyweight clash, and that’s with a Same Game Parlay. Before we dive in, don’t forget to read all our other NFL Week 17 picks on sides and totals. But now let’s get right into this Dolphins vs Ravens SGP.
Miami Dolphins -6.5 alternate spread (+320)
Tua Tagovailoa to record 300+passing yards (+320)
Parlay odds: +1609
We have a 2-leg Same Game Parlay, which pays out just north of 16/1 with FanDuel Sportsbook. Let’s break it down.
Miami Dolphins -6.5 alternate spread (+320)
To start this Same Game Parlay I have the Dolphins on an alternate spread. A narrative persisted for a while that the Dolphins couldn’t get it done against other top teams, and they put that to rest last week with a much needed win over the Cowboys. And now is a great time to sell high on the Ravens at the top of the market following their big win over the 49ers. The victory over San Francisco was undeniably impressive, but they had a lot of bounces go their way as they picked off Brock Purdy four times.
They aren’t likely to repeat that turnover luck here, as Tua Tagovailoa hasn’t thrown an interception in four straight games. Lamar Jackson had 252 yards through the air and another 45 on the ground, but it wasn’t a special performance by any means. And they actually got outgained by the 49ers significantly.
Keaton Mitchell tearing his ACL the week before against Jacksonville was a huge blow to Baltimore’s offense, and Gus Edwards and Justice Hill combined for 57 yards on 19 carries while trying to replace him last week. Mark Andrews is done for the year as well, and they’re counting on a rookie in Zay Flowers to be their number one receiver. Everyone has been ready to crown the Ravens as the best team in the league this week, but I’m not so sure.
The Dolphins probably have the highest offensive ceiling of any team in the league and seven of their past nine wins have come by at least 14 points, so they certainly make a lot of sense as a team to target on an alt spread. When they win, they tend to air it out and win big. Which brings us to the next leg of our same game parlay…
Tua Tagovailoa to record 300+passing yards (+320)
All we need for this same game parlay to cash is one big game from Tua Tagovailoa and this Dolphins offense, which we’ve seen plenty of times this season. Tua has thrown for at least 300 yards in 5 of his 15 games this season, and +320 has implied odds of only 23.8 percent. And I think these two legs correlate more than the oddsmakers seem to think. The Dolphins have won all five of the games where Tua has thrown for 300+, with each of the last four coming by at least 7 points.
Baltimore’s defense is a bit overrated, and just a couple weeks ago Matthew Stafford was able to have a lot of success against them while throwing for 294. And it looks like the Ravens might be without Kyle Hamilton here, who was the star of their defense last week against the 49ers. He didn’t practice all week and according to reporters at the team’s facility he wasn’t moving around very well.
Tagovailoa has been pretty matchup proof, and just two weeks ago he completed 88 percent of his passes and averaged 9.3 yards per attempt against the Jets’ elite defense. Tua has been just as efficient on the road as he has been at home this season, and the last time he went on the highway he had 280 yards on only 24 attempts.
