Ricky Dimon
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Best Bet – To Make the Playoffs (+1000)
Worst Bet – To Win the AFC Championship (+6600)
Not too much unlike AFC East rival Buffalo, the Miami Dolphins have been extremely consistent over the past decade. Unfortunately for both franchises, that means consistently mediocre. In nine of the last 10 seasons, Miami has finished with between six and eight victories (the only exception was 10 in 2016). They went 7-9 in 2018, good for a one-win improvement from a 6-10 mark the previous year. The Dolphins really should have been 6-10 again this past season, but they pulled off the famous Miami Miracle against New England.
Vegas expects this team to take a step back rather than improve in 2019. Following seven mostly unsuccessful seasons, the Ryan Tannehill era is over. Tannehill is now with the Titans, replaced by fellow veteran quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. At Tampa Bay’s helm, Fitzpatrick was the sensation of the NFL through three weeks of the 2018 campaign. But the 36-year-old struggled thereafter and eventually took a back seat to Jameis Winston. Fitzpatrick will be on another short leash this season, as Miami was the one to step up to the plate and get Josh Rosen from Arizona for chump change. For the first time in a while, Dolphins fans have to be feeling somewhat encouraged by their QB situation.
Whatever happens, things really can’t get any worse for Miami on offense. It finished second-to-last in the league in 2018 (dead last in passing by a mile, 18th in rushing), better than only the Cardinals. Running back Frank Gore has bolted for division rival Buffalo, leaving primary ball-carrying duties to former Alabama standout Kenyan Drake. Speaking of people joining rivals, there is also a change at the top. Former head coach Adam Gase is now leading the Jets, and the Dolphins replaced him with former Patriots assistant coach Brian Flores. The 38-year-old worked his way through the New England system for 15 years, coaching linebackers for each of the past three.
Dolphins Win Total: O/U 5 Wins
Sure, the Dolphins are in rebuilding mode. But they’ve basically been in perennial rebuilding mode for the last decade (aside from a 10-6 record in 2016 that earned a wild-card berth) and they have never been that terrible during the process. Since going 1-15 in 2007, this franchise has produced at least six victories on 10 consecutive occasions.
Can the Dolphins do it again? It’s certainly not out of the question, as the offense should be in better shape without the Tannehill turmoil. One of the two quarterbacks should pan out and pay immediate dividends. As for the other side of the ball, a defensive-minded head coach can only help a unit that was already respectable in 2018. Facing Buffalo and the Jets twice plus the Giants in Week 15 will help Miami’s chances for success. Take over five wins and do so with confidence.
Odds to Make the Playoffs: Yes +1000, No -2500
In each of the past two seasons, Miami has pulled off Week 14 upsets of the Patriots to put itself in serious playoff contention—only to slump to season-ending three-game losing streaks. Are the Dolphins good enough to finish the drill this time around? If an experienced signal-caller like Fitzpatrick takes the reins the whole way, it is a real possibility. And he probably doesn’t have to be spectacular, because Miami’s defense should be strong. Clemson tackle Christian Wilkins was a steal in the draft; he will be playing in front of linebacker Kiko Alonso and safety Minkah Fitzpatrick. Count out Team Fitzpatrick at your own peril. Although you can’t expect Miami to make the playoffs, getting +1000 odds is almost too good to be true. Jump on it.
Odds to Win the AFC East: +2500
Last I checked, the Patriots were still in the AFC East. Assuming I’m correct and that is the case, then no other team under any circumstances can be picked to take the division with any kind of straight face. It does help that Buffalo and the Jets probably won’t be any good, but Miami would need Tom Brady to get hurt and get hurt early in the regular season if it wants to have a realistic shot. That’s something you can’t feel good about rooting for and it’s not something you can bet on—especially not given Brady’s track record of durability. A wild card berth is not out of the question; a division crown, on the other hand, is beyond the realm of possibility.
Odds to Win the AFC Championship: +6600
Making the playoffs is realistic. Winning the division is at least somewhat fathomable since the Dolphins have actually enjoyed some recent head-to-head success against New England and Father Time might suddenly catch up with Brady (unlikely!). Winning the entire AFC, however, is a whole different matter. Both the top-heaviness and the depth are too great, as teams like Kansas City, San Diego, and Baltimore simply outclass Miami in every way. Plus, chances are good that mistakes would catch up to this team in the playoffs. Fitzpatrick is a home-run hitter who can produce the big play but also turn the ball over left and right. Rosen, especially at this point in his career, can also be a turnover machine. This is just about as bad as a bet can be.
Odds to Win the Super Bowl: +12500
Not even Dan Marino could win a Super Bowl with the Dolphins. You think Fitzpatrick or Rosen can get the job done? Not this year, anyway. Miami is not going to be terrible, but they also are not going to be great. It’s a high floor (although some would argue otherwise) and a low ceiling. The Dolphins aren’t winning the AFC and they aren’t winning the Super Bowl. But the former at +6600 isn’t even fun. The whole shebang at +12500 is at least amusing. Don’t do it. But it is amusing.
