Ian Wilkerson
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Mexico has never got past the second round at a World Cup when playing overseas and El Tri get their tournament started against Poland on Tuesday (11:00am ET, FS1, Peacock, Telemundo).
Argentina and Saudi Arabia will also have to be faced in Group C before we know if Gerardo Martino’s team can qualify for the head-to-head elimination stages, but this game looks key in their quest to reach the round of 16 in Qatar.
Poland will have high hopes too as it has one of the world’s best strikers in Robert Lewandowski, so this looks like being one of the most intriguing matchups in the first round of games and we have picked out a Same Game Parlay to add to the excitement.
We cashed our Qatar vs Ecuador Same Game Parlay on the opening game of the tournament at +1077 odds, so let’s try to repeat that success.
Be sure to check out the rest of our World Cup soccer predictions and remember to gamble responsibly.
But now, here is the parlay we have prepared for this matchup, which pays at +700 odds at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Mexico ML (+150)
Alexis Vega anytime goalscorer (+320)
Under 3.5 goals (-550)
Same Game Parlay odds: +700
Let’s check out the reasoning behind each of our selections:
Mexico ML (+150)
The teams are closely matched, but Mexico looks the more likely team to post an opening win. Poland failed to make a strong impression in its Nations League campaign in the summer and arguably relies too much on its star striker Robert Lewandowski.
Mexico looks a stronger all-round outfit and that team strength could be enough to overcome an opponent that is pinning its hopes on one world-class performer in its offense. Mexico has strong goal threats in Napoli’s Hirving Lozano and Guadalajara’s Alexis Vega and that could tip the balance in El Tri’s favor.
Don’t miss our full Mexico World Cup preview
Alexis Vega anytime goalscorer (+320)
Lozano has performed well in Serie A, but with Wolves striker Raul Jimenez continuing to struggle after suffering a serious head injury 2 years ago, this could be a big opportunity for Vega to shine in Mexico’s offense.
He has scored only 3 goals in 18 games for his club this season, but has a much better international record and has found the net in each of his last 3 appearances for his national team. The extra responsibility could be the making of him in this tournament and he can get his campaign off to a goalscoring start.
Under 3.5 goals (-550)
If you prefer, you could stick with just those 2 legs for a payout of +525 odds, but adding under 3.5 goals in the game pushes the odds up to +700. With a close game in prospect it could prove to be difficult for both teams to score.
None of Mexico’s 14 CONCACAF qualification games featured more than 3 goals and there has been a total of just 5 goals scored in Poland’s last 4 games. It would be a surprise if there were more than 3 scored in this game at Stadium 974.
Make sure you check out the rest of our World Cup predictions for the upcoming games
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