Ian Wilkerson
Show Bio
Mexico will co-host the 2026 soccer World Cup alongside the USA and Canada, but first El Tri will be hoping to break a cycle of second-round eliminations at this year’s tournament in Qatar.
There has been a repeated pattern in every World Cup that Mexico has played in since 1994. Qualification from the group stage has been accomplished each time, but then the first head-to-head elimination game has proved to be too much for the Mexican squad.
Mexico has reached the quarterfinals of the world’s biggest international soccer tournament just twice, and on both occasions it was the host nation. Maybe that bodes well for the 2026 World Cup, but more importantly, what are Mexico’s chances this time? Let’s find out.
Mexico has a tough group draw at the 2022 World Cup
Mexico will play Argentina, Poland and Saudi Arabia in its 3 group game and, if it can claim 2nd place, there is a strong chance that defending champion France will be waiting in the round of 16.
The good news for Mexico is that it has won 4 and tied 1 of the 5 games it has played against Saudi Arabia, but its record against Argentina is less encouraging, with only 1 win in 6 competitive matchups.
El Tri has not faced Poland in a meaningful game since a 3-1 loss in the 1978 World Cup in Argentina, so that does not provide much assistance for assessing a meeting of the current rosters.
Get our 2022 World Cup winner picks, including a +5000 longshot!
Gerardo Martino has made a big call on Chicarito
Experience is not a problem for Mexico coach Gerardo Martino, who has previously taken charge of Paraguay and his native Argentina, and also had a spell as coach of Spanish giant Barcelona.
He will not be taking former Manchester United striker Javier Hernandez to his 4th World Cup despite the fact the forward has had an excellent season in MLS with LA Galaxy. Instead, Wolves forward Raul Jimenez is expected to be the main man on offense, but he has struggled after suffering a serious head injury and there could be a lot of pressure on him.
Hirving Lozano has been playing in a Napoli team which is looking like a contender for Serie A this season but he is struggling to make an impression in that side, while Jesus Corona is playing for a Sevilla team that is struggling at the wrong end of the Spanish standings.
Martino should, however, be able to rely on experienced goalkeeper Guillermo Ochoa, who will be displaying his skills at his 5th World Cup tournament.
We have a +6500 longshot for our 2022 World Cup Golden Boot winner predictions
2022 World Cup best bet: Mexico not to qualify from Group B (-120)
Mexico has traditionally forced its way through the group stage at the World Cup but this could be the tournament at which that run ends. It has been handed a difficult group assignment this time and the opening game against Poland looks set to be crucial to its chances of reaching the elimination stage.
Unfortunately for Mexico, the Poland team contains one of the world’s best strikers in Barcelona’s Robert Lewandowski and the Mexicans simply do not have a player of his quality. That tips the balance in Poland’s favor and should Martino’s team lose that game then an early elimination will be likely.
Mexico may not have the class to deal with Argentina and although El Tri should claim a win against the Saudis, that would likely not be enough to maintain the qualification streak.
Betting on Mexico to be eliminated at the group stage at -120 odds with DraftKings Sportsbook could pay, and it could also be worth taking Mexico to gain exactly 3 points in the group, most likely from a victory over Saudi Arabia, which is available at +380 odds with FanDuel Sportsbook.
See our full USA 2022 World Cup soccer predictions and analysis for how the USMNT will perform
Pickswise is the home of soccer World Cup Picks. Be sure to check back throughout the tournament for our daily World Cup Predictions and World Cup Best Bets.
