Germantas Kneita
The Dallas Mavericks will be hoping to take the momentum from their dominant display against the Sacramento Kings into Saturday’s play-in contest against the Memphis Grizzlies. The hosts will be looking to bounce back from a loss to the Golden State Warriors and will be sweating the status of Ja Morant, who will be a game time decision. The Oklahoma City Thunder will be eagerly awaiting the winner, so let’s get into the breakdown of this game, and my Same Game Parlay.
You can find our previews for all of the NBA postseason action here. But for now, check out my Mavericks vs Grizzlies Same Game Parlay below at +375 odds!
Jaren Jackson Jr. 3+ made threes (+160)
Zach Edey over 12.5 rebounds (-105)
Same Game Parlay odds: +375
Jaren Jackson Jr. 3+ made threes (+160)
Jaren Jackson Jr. has not been shying away from taking shots from the perimeter. Over his last 8 games the Grizzlies forward attempted fewer than 6 shots from beyond the arc on just a single occasion. He has the ability to convert these attempts too, as seen by his 4 of 9 shooting in the Grizzlies latest loss to the Warriors. After such a solid showing shooting the ball, he should be entering this contest against the Mavericks with confidence.
His opponents inside the paint tonight will be Anthony Davis, Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II. All are terrific rim protectors who helped the Grizzlies rank 8th in blocks per game in the last 10 games of the regular season. That should be more than enough incentive for the Grizzlies to use Jackson Jr. as a floor spacer, forcing the opposing big men to vacate the paint and respect his shot making ability. During the same stretch of games the Mavericks are in the bottom half of the league in opponent 3-point percentage. Jackson Jr. is a 37.5% 3-point shooter this season and should be well positioned to maintain that efficiency as a result.
Zach Edey over 12.5 rebounds (-105)
Grizzlies center Zach Edey continues to be a force on the glass, putting together a 17-rebound performance in his last outing against the Warriors. He has now recorded 13 or more rebounds in 6 of his last 7 games. The rookie managed 33 minutes of playing time in his last contest despite the Warriors being able to exploit him with small ball lineups. That will not be an issue here. He has not played fewer than 28 minutes in any of his last 7 games and against the size of the Mavericks frontline, that is unlikely to change. He should get his chances to chase down boards tonight.
Of all the centers mentioned on the Mavericks roster, not one is a consistent threat outside the paint. Davis is the most accomplished shooter, but even he is making just over 28% from 3-point range this season. There are limits to his floor spacing ability. That should leave Edey in great rebounding position throughout the night to battle for misses on both end of the court. Over the last 10 games of the regular season the visitors were just 20th in opponent offensive rebounds per game and 24th in rebounding percentage. Not the kind of stats that would suggest a dip is coming in the Canadians recent rebounding form.
