Ricky Dimon
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Moving day is supposed to be when golf tournaments are turned on their heads, and that is exactly what happened in the third round of the Masters. Justin Rose was the leader after each of the first two days, and even though he did not play poorly on Saturday he still watched Hideki Matsuyama blow by him. Matsuyama fired a 7-under 65 when nobody else in the field was better than -4, thus surging into the lead by four strokes. Now the pressure is suddenly on the 29-year-old to win his first major—and to realize the hopes and dreams of basically all of Japan.
Let’s take an in-depth look at where the outright odds stand following 54 holes of action.
Hideki Matsuyama (-120)
Matsuyama went from trailing by three and not among the top five favorites to leading by four and favored against the entire rest of the field. That’s what happens when you shoot 65 and nobody else cards anything better than a 68. It remains to be seen, however, how Matsuyama deals with the pressure of serious major championship contention. He has never placed better than T4 at any major and never better than fifth at Augusta National.
Xander Schauffele (+500)
Schauffele did well enough on Saturday to stay in contention, which is just about all you can ask for given how low Matsuyama went. The 27-year-old American fired a 4-under 67, playing his way into a tie for second at 7-under. As a reward for his efforts, Schauffele will be in the final pairing with Matsuyama. That may give him an advantage over the other contenders.
Justin Rose (+900)
The bad news for Rose is that he is no longer atop the leaderboard. At the same time, the good news is that he has shot two straight unspectacular rounds of even-par and still has a realistic chance of donning the green jacket for the first time. The 40-year-old Englishman is tied for second at 7-under along with Schauffele, Marc Leishman, and Will Zalatoris.
Will Zalatoris (+1000)
Zalatoris did not go super low on Saturday (71), but he handled the pressure of being in the final pairing of the Masters on the weekend extremely well. The 24-year-old kept himself in the mix and even had a makeable birdie putt on 18 that would have put him in the final group with Matsuyama. Saturday’s experience should only help the Wake Forest product.
Marc Leishman (+1100)
Since opening with a lackluster 72, Leishman has gone 67-70 to join the quartet at 7-under. The 37-year-old does not have as much experience Rose, but he has been around a lot longer than Schauffele and especially Zalatoris. If Matsuyama stumbles, there is no reason why Leishman can’t be the one to take advantage. He has place in the top 10 twice in Augusta, so he knows what he is doing around this course.
Jordan Spieth (+1600)
Spieth went from favorite to longshot in the span of 18 holes, which is nothing new at the Masters. Heck, that same scenario happened in one hole back in 2016—when Spieth was the leader on the back nine on Sunday before going in the water twice on 12. The 2015 champion may need a similar kind of collapse from Matsuyama in order to have any chance.
Jordan Spieth. The man. pic.twitter.com/dhrUnQE0Sq
— Fore Play (@ForePlayPod) April 10, 2021
Best Bet: Schauffele
Aside from Matsuyama’s two-hour stretch of unconscious golf late on Saturday, nobody has been better from tee to green than Schauffele this week. He is starting to get the putter going too, which makes for a scary combination. If the world No. 6 can put pressure on his playing partner early on Sunday, it will be game on.
Pickswise is the home of free expert Golf Picks and Predictions. Our outright PGA expert picks go live every Tuesday, so be sure check out our golf picks, best bets, and analysis for the Masters when those go live. We will also have our 2021 Masters 3-ball picks and our best golf prop bets for each round of the 2021 Masters.
