Andrew Ortenberg
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At long last, March Madness is here. The 2022 NCAA Tournament will officially get underway this week, and the wagering opportunities will be endless. Here at Pickswise we’ll have everything you need to get primed, so make sure to keep an eye on our March Madness hub for all the latest.
But right now, we’re talking upsets. Shocking upsets are arguably the best part of March Madness, and every year we see some. It’s one of the few certainties of the tournament. There are going to be some stunning results in the first round, and it’s time to dive into a few teams I believe will be on upset watch.
#3 Wisconsin vs #14 Colgate
We’re starting in the Midwest region with Wisconsin. The Badgers fit the profile of the kind of team you want to target for an outright upset. They’ve got a fairly high ceiling, but a really low floor as well. According to Kenpom, Wisconsin has been the 10th-luckiest team in all of college basketball this season. They’ve won some very close games against bad teams. They only beat Nicholls State by 3 and Illinois State by 4.
Colgate is significantly better than both of those teams. The Raiders finished the year playing their best ball of the season, and they’ll enter this one riding a 15-game winning streak. They’re shooting over 40 percent from beyond the arc as a team, which is pretty incredible. Wisconsin is a slow team with an offense that tends to get stagnant. That’s the perfect recipe for a March Madness upset.
Check out Ricky Dimon’s Selection Sunday reaction piece with an early look at the field
#4 Arkansas vs #13 Vermont
Turning our attention to the West region now, where I would be a little on edge if I were an Arkansas fan. The Razorbacks showed in their disappointing 18-point loss in the SEC Tournament to Texas A&M that they certainly aren’t immune to upsets. A lot of their wins this season have been super close, and I’m not sure they’re as good as their record indicates. Remember when they lost to Hofstra during non-conference play? But this is mostly because Vermont is way better than your typical 13-seed.
The Catamounts finished the season by winning 22 of their final 23 games, and the one loss in that span came on the road by just a single point. It doesn’t get much better than the guard/forward combo of Ben Shungu/Ryan Davis. Both guys are seniors, and both are shooting better than 41 percent from deep while averaging at least 16 points per game. Vermont just swept through the America East Tournament to clinch their bid, winning all 3 of their games by at least 32 points. They aren’t going to be an easy out.
Read our picks for which March Madness teams will be on upset watch in the first round
#5 Iowa vs #12 Richmond
Wisconsin isn’t the only team from the Big Ten that I think will be sweating this week. Going back to the Midwest region, I also think Iowa might have some trouble. Richmond surprisingly emerged victorious from the Atlantic 10 Tournament, and they looked pretty good doing it. The Spiders got past Davidson in the championship game to get here, and they’re one of the most experienced teams in the country. As we’re all aware, experience is invaluable during March Madness. And Richmond has a lot of it.
Their second-leading scorer and rebounder is big man Grant Golden, a 6th-year senior. Starting point guard Jacob Gilyard is a 5th-year senior, and he’s played at least 36.5 minutes per game in all 5 of his college seasons. Overall 4 of their top 5 scorers are super seniors, and the only one that isn’t is a junior. This team is as seasoned as they come, and they’ve got real offensive upside. Against an Iowa defense that’s been shaky all year, they’re going to keep things close. And I wouldn’t be surprised at all if they get the outright win as a +330 money line underdog.
Get our best bets for the NCAA Tournament First Four games
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