Sam Avellone
Upsets are synonymous with March Madness. The NCAA Tournament is as beautiful as it is chaotic, and college basketball fans alike always love the thrill of the unpredictable and the unexpected every March. Usually, one of the top seeds makes it all the way to the end of the tournament and hoists the trophy. However, the upsets are what make this event so unique and so entertaining. Every year there are a handful of teams that completely wreck brackets before the second weekend, and I’m sure this year will be no different. Here are a couple of my favorite upset picks for the opening round, as well as a Cinderella pick to make it at least to the 2nd weekend.
Have you read our 68-team March Madness bracket guide? It is a must before you fill out your bracket and make your bets!
NCAA Tournament first round upset picks
Thursday: Yale Bulldogs ML over Texas A&M Aggies (+260)
If you saw my Sweet 16 best bets, you’d know that I like the way Yale matches up with Texas A&M. The Aggies obviously have a sizable talent advantage over their Ivy League counterparts, but their offense leaves a lot to be desired – especially when they aren’t gobbling up offensive rebounds. Texas A&M is 317th in effective field goal percentage, struggling not only from beyond the arc, but inside the arc and at the free throw line as well. Moreover, the Aggies sit around 250th nationally in turnover rate, and they’ve blown multiple leads this year because of their inconsistencies on the offensive end – most notably their game at Texas when they let a 51-29 2nd half lead slip away and lost at the buzzer.
Yale is a team that excels at limiting offensive rebounds. The Bulldogs yield fewer than 8 per game, ranking top 25 nationally in opposing offensive rebounding rate. That is key against this Texas A&M bunch, which is 1st nationally in offensive rebounding rate – seemingly the only thing the Aggies do well on that end of the floor. Yale also has a couple veteran leaders in senior point guard Bez Mbeng and senior wing John Poulakidas, who have experience knocking off an SEC team in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament. With the help of Poulakidas’ 28 points and Mbeng’s 5 steals, Yale sent #4 Auburn home early last year. On the other end of the floor, Yale is very good at limiting offense at and round the rim. In fact, the Bulldogs are in the 78th percentile in shots allowed at the rim and in the 96th percentile in shots allowed in the paint (CBB Analytics). These characteristics should help negate Texas A&M’s action around the hoop.
The Bulldogs are led by James Jones, who has plenty of NCAA Tournament experience as a coach. They have advanced to the 2nd round in 2 of their last 4 tournament appearances, and this year’s offense grades stronger than any of those teams. For reference, the Bulldogs are 9th nationally in 3-point percentage, knocking down 38.5% of those shots. They should get plenty of looks from the perimeter in this matchup, as Texas A&M is outside the top 350 in 3-point rate allowed. As the better shooting team led by veteran guards, Yale is live against Texas A&M.
Check out who we think will make it to San Antonio with our Final Four best bets!
Friday: New Mexico Lobos ML over Marquette Golden Eagles (+145)
Get your popcorn ready for Donovan Dent vs Kam Jones when the New Mexico Lobos meet the Marquette Golden Eagles in Cleveland on Friday. Dent is one of the best playmakers in the country, leading the Lobos in scoring (20.6 points pg) and assists (6.4 per game) while knocking down more than 41% of his perimeter shots. Furthermore, despite losing the opening game to Clemson last year, Dent has NCAA Tournament experience along with running mates Mustapha Amzil and Nelly Junior Joseph.
I realize the Mountain West doesn’t have much luck in the NCAA Tournament outside of San Diego State’s run to the title game a couple years ago, but I like the way this team matches up against Marquette. New Mexico can run with Marquette. In fact, the Lobos love to play fast and score in transition, averaging 15.7 fast break points per game over their last 10. They are solid on the offensive boards, limit turnovers and want to get to the rim as much as possible (96th percentile in shots at the rim). That should work in their favor against the Golden Eagles, who aren’t very good at limiting action around the basket. Marquette ranks as low as the 6th percentile in opposing shots at the rim (CBB Analytics), and the Golden Eagles don’t have what I would consider an imposing and rim-denying big man like the Lobos have in Joseph.
With wins over UCLA, USC and VCU this season, and a NCAA Tournament appearance under their belt last year, I don’t believe the moment will be too big for the Lobos on Friday night. Look for New Mexico to send Shaka Smart and the Golden Eagles home early.
Looking for more NCAA Futures? Check out our best bets for the Sweet 16!
NCAA Tournament Cinderella picks
North Carolina Tar Heels to make the Elite 8 (+700)
I guess I really like early-round chaos in the South Region; I promise this wasn’t on purpose. The Tar Heels obviously aren’t your typical Cinderella. North Carolina is one of the sport’s blueblood programs, but barely made the tournament this year. After a convincing First Four win over San Diego State on Tuesday, the Heels are officially in the full field, and I expect them to make some noise. Per EvanMiya, this group is underseeded based on their statistical profile and talent level. While they only had 1 Quad 1 win entering the tournament, the Tar Heels are capable of playing with anyone, and their path isn’t the most difficult.
North Carolina will face an Ole Miss team in the first round that isn’t very good on the boards or defending on the perimeter, and the Rebels don’t have elite size that would overpower the Tar Heels in the post. Assuming they get past Ole Miss, the Tar Heels would face a potential matchup with Iowa State, who won’t have starting guard Keshon Gilbert. In the Sweet 16, North Carolina could meet Michigan State for the 2nd time this season, a team who beat the Heels by 3 in overtime in Maui back in November. Michigan State’s Jace Richardson didn’t play in that game, but I like UNC in a tournament setting over Sparty due to its experience level at the guard position with RJ Davis, Elliot Cadeau and Seth Trimble.
The Tar Heels showcased their ceiling offensively in the First Four, and if they are able to stay hot for the next couple of weeks, I like their chances to continue the trend of a First Four winner making a deep run in the NCAA Tournament.
