Matt Marquart
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Five of the 16 teams still left in the NCAA Tournament won their second-round game as an underdog. They are Michigan, Saint Peter’s, North Carolina, Iowa State and Miami. The Hurricanes are the only team that isn’t an underdog in their Sweet 16 matchup, only because they are playing against Iowa State. Providence, Houston, Duke and Arkansas are underdogs in their games for the first time in the tournament, giving us eight total to evaluate. The article below looks at a few of these teams that are receiving points against the spread and discusses whether they are worthy of betting on.
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Houston Cougars +1.5 (-110) over Arizona Wildcats
The Cougars are barely underdogs as they are currently +1.5 at FanDuel, but they are plus-money on the money line at +102. They present some major challenges for Arizona, so they should be under consideration of backing. Houston’s defense ranks 10th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency and excel in two areas that could give Arizona’s offense some problems; interior defense and forcing turnovers.
Arizona’s 7th-ranked offense according to KenPom does most of their scoring in the paint. Per Hoop-Math, the Wildcats rank 39th in the percentage of shots taken and 5th in field-goal percentage at the rim, but Houston’s defense is elite at protecting the rim. The Cougars allow the 19th-fewest shot attempts and are 66th in field-goal percentage defense, so Arizona could have some issues offensively. This would force them to hit some threes, which isn’t a strength of theirs. We just saw them shoot 5/27 from beyond the arc against TCU and if that happens again, they’ll surely be going home.
Houston’s defense is also excellent at forcing turnovers, ranking 29th in defensive turnover rate, per KenPom. This could be problematic for an Arizona team that ranks just 166th in offensive turnover rate. On the other end of the court, Houston’s offensive rebounding will present a major challenge for Arizona. The Wildcats just gave up 20 offensive rebounds to TCU in the second round, and Houston will offer no reprieve from that. Houston ranks 3rd nationally in offensive rebounding rate. Between the offensive rebounds and potential turnovers, we could see Houston end up with significantly more shot attempts in this game, which would give them a great chance of advancing to the Elite Eight.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Houston Cougars vs Arizona Wildcats
North Carolina Tar Heels +2.5 (-110) over UCLA Bruins
The Tar Heels are currently +2.5 and +116 against UCLA at FanDuel and have some possible matchup edges on the Bruins, most notably with their transition offense. Per Synergy, North Carolina ranks in the 89th percentile in transition offense. Playing in transition has always been a staple of Roy Williams’s style, and first-year head coach Hubert Davis seems to be emphasizing it as well. On paper, the matchup with UCLA looks promising, as the Bruins rank in just the 19th percentile in transition defense. Not only will North Carolina have chances to score in the open court, but perhaps more importantly it will allow them to not face the stingy UCLA half-court defense that ranks in the 86th percentile.
The Tar Heels also have the three-point shooting to take advantage of a UCLA defense that allowed the 3rd-highest three-point attempt rate in the Pac-12 Conference. North Carolina ranks 41st nationally in three-point percentage and forward Brady Manek has been on fire in the NCAA Tournament. UCLA’s defense has been a bit fortunate in the tournament so far based on their opponents’ three-point shooting, as Akron and Saint Mary’s combined to make just 11 of their 38 attempts. Perhaps North Carolina will change that.
On the other end, North Carolina’s defense isn’t even in the top-40 in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency, but they are an excellent defense rebounding team. The Tar Heels rank 2nd in the country in defensive rebounding rate, which is important against a UCLA team that ranks 65th in offensive rebounding rate. Myles Johnson ranks 13th in the country in individual offensive rebounding rate, but if he is kept off the glass by Armando Bacot, UCLA will be unlikely to get many second-chance opportunities.
Lastly, UCLA’s Jaime Jacquez went down last game with an ankle injury and is questionable for Friday’s game. Mick Cronin said “if he can walk, he’ll play” earlier this week, but even if he can go, he could be limited. This would obviously give North Carolina an even better chance of winning the game, as Jacquez is the second-leading scorer for the Bruins at 14.0 points per game and the team’s leading rebounder as well. Consider backing North Carolina in this battle of blue bloods.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for North Carolina Tar Heels vs UCLA Bruins
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