Sam Avellone
If you watch March Madness for the upsets, then you aren’t thrilled with this year’s NCAA Tournament. There weren’t many upsets last week, and the Cinderella candidates that managed to win in the opening round couldn’t continue their run in the Round of 32. That leaves us with a Sweet 16 dominated by the SEC and 3 other power conferences, which is not entirely that surprising if we’re being honest with ourselves. The SEC, Big Ten and Big 12 have dominated college basketball this year, and it seems those conferences are just going to keep getting stronger in this era of the transfer portal and NIL.
While we don’t have a true Cinderella – sorry Razorbacks fans, I’m never going to give Coach Calipari the “Cinderella” moniker – we should be primed for an excellent Sweet 16 and beyond given how strong the teams are at the top of the college basketball food chain. I’m expecting epic games throughout this second weekend and can’t wait for the Madness to return on Thursday. Here are my best bets for Day 1 of the Sweet 16, and don’t forget to check out the rest of our March Madness picks for every game remaining in the NCAA Tournament.
March Madness Sweet 16 Day 1 best bets
BYU Cougars vs Alabama Crimson Tide Under 176 (-110)
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Alabama and BYU have 2 of the 10 most efficient offenses in the country, and the Tide play at the fastest pace in college basketball – so the expectation is for this game to be extremely high-scoring. In fact, this total is one of the highest we’ve ever seen in an NCAA Tournament game. However, I think it’s just a bit too high.
The strength of BYU’s defense is its ability to limit shots at the rim. The Cougars are in the 92nd percentile in attempts at the rim and in the 85th percentile in field goal percentage at the rim according to CBB Analytics, which takes away one of the strengths of Alabama’s offense. For reference, about 38% of Alabama’s shots are taken at the rim, and the Tide are top 20 in near-proximity rate according to Haslametrics. BYU’s ability to take away shots at the rim is going to force Alabama to make a high percentage of its perimeter shots, which is not something it has been able to do consistently this year.
On the other end, Alabama doesn’t have the reputation as a defensive team. However, the Tide have been good defensively over the last month, boasting a top-40 mark in adjusted efficiency since February 15 per BartTorvik. The strength of this unit is on the perimeter, where the Tide excel at limiting three-point shots. They are exceptionally good against attack-and-kick sets, which BYU runs at a 94th-percentile frequency, and limiting corner threes – which BYU takes at one of the highest rates in the country. This game figures to be up-and-down, but with BYU’s rim denial and Alabama’s perimeter denial, I like this game to stay under this total by a couple of possessions. Playable to 173.
Read our full BYU vs Alabama prediction for tonight’s Sweet 16 matchup
Duke Blue Devils -9 over Arizona Wildcats (-115)
Odds courtesy of Bet365 at the time of publishing.
One of the 2 rematches in the Sweet 16, Duke will play Arizona in Newark on Thursday night with a trip to the Elite 8 on the line. The Blue Devils controlled the first meeting in Arizona for a majority of the game, holding the Wildcats to 0.81 points per possession and 6/23 from beyond the arc. Duke also dominated the glass, out-rebounding Arizona by 13. Offensively, Duke was paced by Cooper Flagg and Kon Knueppel’s 37 combined points, but the Blue Devils didn’t have their best performance on that end of the floor – making fewer than 48% of their field goals and only 8 of 13 free throws.
I’m expecting Duke to control this matchup once again. While the Blue Devils weren’t the most efficient from the field in Arizona, that was their first true road game of the season. They still had plenty of good looks at and around the rim with various off-ball cuts, not to mention the fact that their offense is on a completely different level right now. In fact, Duke is 1st nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and effective field goal percentage since February 15 (Barttorvik) and has the ability to score from anywhere on the floor.
Meanwhile, Arizona is 65th in adjusted defensive efficiency in that span, in addition to ranking outside the top 175 in opposing effective field goal percentage. Against a defense that struggles to contain the perimeter, Tyrese Proctor should have another opportunity for a massive showing on Thursday night — as he has made 19 of his last 30 three-point attempts.
Arizona needs to create at the rim to take pressure off its inconsistent three-point shooting, but Duke is elite in its defense at the rim. Per CBB Analytics, the Blue Devils are in the 93rd percentile in field goal attempts at the rim, as well as 91st in field goal percentage allowed on those attempts. What we will likely see is Caleb Love and the ‘Cats jack up a ton of threes, and considering they hit 50% of them against Oregon, I am wary they can knock down enough of them to keep this game close – much less win.
A cross-country trip to play Duke after the Blue Devils were able to sleep in their own beds all weekend during the opening rounds in Raleigh doesn’t work in Arizona’s favor, nor does being led by a coach who has just 1 ATS win in 7 NCAA Tournament games with 3+ days to prepare. Give me the Blue Devils to continue their impressive March run. Playable to -9.5.
Read our full Arizona vs Duke prediction
