Sam Avellone
Like Thursday, Friday’s March Madness slate figures to be packed with 4 high-level matchups between some of the best teams in college basketball. The night opens with a battle between 2 of the nation’s best coaches in Tom Izzo and Chris Beard, which will run simultaneously with a rematch of the rematch between Tennessee and Kentucky. In the late window, Auburn is laying almost double-digits against Michigan, while Houston is right in that range against Purdue despite the Boilermakers playing less than 90 minutes from campus in Indianapolis. Here are my favorite picks for Friday’s Sweet 16 slate. Enjoy the games, and don’t forget to check the Pickswise March Madness predictions for the rest of our staff’s thoughts on each and every NCAA Tournament matchup.
March Madness Sweet 16 Day 2 best bets
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
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Ole Miss Rebels +4 over Michigan State Spartans (-110)
While I acknowledge Tom Izzo is the best coast remaining in the NCAA Tournament, Chris Beard isn’t too far off. Beard has 12 tournament wins with 4 different programs – including a win over Purdue as the coach of Little Rock – and he has covered the spread in 8 of his 9 tournament games with 3+ days to prepare. His Ole Miss squad is 1 of the 3 most experienced teams in the country this season, playing well on both ends of the floor – especially of late. In fact, the Rebels are 5-2 SU since March 1, with all 5 wins over tournament teams. Their only losses were to Auburn and Florida in that time, both of which are #1 seeds in the NCAA tournament.
Getting to the matchup on the court, I worry about the Rebels on the glass and at the rim when Sparty is able to get there. The Rebels lack size in the frontcourt, and they are so intent on taking away transition opportunities that they seemingly sacrifice any potential offensive rebounds to get back and defend unless the ball bounces right to them. However, they are above-average in their ability to limit the amount of opportunities their opponents get at the rim and in the paint, and they force turnovers at a top 35 rate – as is typical with Beard’s defensive system. Those are key defensive attributes against Michigan State, as the Spartans are one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country (323rd).
Beard’s plan will likely center around forcing the Spartans to beat the Rebels from the perimeter, which is not something they have shown an ability to do. I also worry about the Michigan State ball control in this matchup due to its pair of freshman guards in the backcourt.
While the Rebels give up size to the Spartans, I like what they offer offensively in the front court. Malik Dia and Jaemyn Brakefield are versatile big men who can stretch the Michigan State forwards out of the paint with their ability to knock down threes at a 35% clip. The Rebels also have a couple of sharpshooters in the backcourt with Sean Pedulla and Jaylen Murray, who have made more than 140 combined threes at a 38% clip. What I like most about this offense is that the Rebels take care of the ball. They give the ball away on fewer than 13% of possessions, and they almost never have any self-inflicted wounds either – leading the country in non-steal turnover percentage (KenPom).
The combination of Beard’s tournament success and Ole Miss’s ability to limit transition opportunities with the Rebels’ elite turnover rate and ability to stretch the floor is enough for me to trust Ole Miss here, despite its perceived disadvantages on the boards. Give me the points with the Rebels for the first of my March Madness best bets on Day 2 of the Sweet 16. Playable to +2.
Read our full Ole Miss vs Michigan State prediction
Auburn Tigers -9 over Michigan Wolverines (-105)
If you read my Michigan vs Auburn prediction earlier this week, you know I like the Tigers in this matchup, and I haven’t wavered off that opinion. I think Auburn matches up well with the Wolverines via its size in the frontcourt with Johni Broome and Dylan Cardwell. While both are just shy of 7-foot, Broome and Cardwell are top 50 in block rate out of more than 2,300 Division 1 players, and they are 2 of the better post defenders in the SEC per EvanMiya’s defensive ratings. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see Chaney Johnson defend Danny Wolf at times in this matchup, as he offers quite a bit of quickness and athleticism as a defender that would play well against Wolf when he has the ball on the perimeter.
Speaking of Wolf, he is one of the main culprits for Michigan’s turnover woes. This team is 324th nationally in turnover rate, and Wolf carries a 24% turnover rate himself – averaging more than 3 per game in the month of March. Considering Michigan’s only consistent perimeter threats are Nimari Burnett and former-Tiger Tre Donaldson, one of whom will be defended by Denver Jones, I don’t have confidence in the Wolverines’ ability to overcome turnovers if they can’t rely on the size advantages they usually have with Wolf and Vlad Goldin in the post.
Meanwhile, the Tigers will have as many as 3 38%+ perimeter shooters on the floor at any given time. The turnover and 3-point discrepancies will likely tell the story in this game, and because I favor Auburn in both categories, I am going to lay the points with the Tigers for the last of my Sweet 16 best bets – who will be playing this game in Atlanta less than 2 hours from campus. Playable at this number or better.
Find out our Sweet 16 parlay picks for tonight’s action at HUGE +1175 odds!
