Sam Avellone
The opening weekend of the NCAA Tournament draws to a close on Sunday, but not before a loaded slate of games with phenomenal matchups all day long. With a chance to punch their ticket to the Sweet 16, everything is on the line for these teams. Will the favorites continue to take care of business? Or will the underdogs step up on Sunday like Arkansas did on Saturday? I have a sneaky suspicion there will be at least a couple underdogs that make some noise on the second day of the round of 32. Here are my favorites of the bunch.
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NCAA Tournament Sunday underdog picks
Saint Mary’s Gaels +6.5 vs Alabama Crimson Tide (-115)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing
This is your quintessential pace war, as Alabama is quite literally the fastest team in the country in terms of tempo, while Saint Mary’s ranks 360 out 364 teams in KenPom’s adjusted tempo and average possession length. The Gaels pair that slow pace of play with an elite defense that is 7th in adjusted efficiency and 14th in opposing effective field goal percentage. Utilizing this marriage of slow pace and elite defense, Saint Mary’s is often able to muddy its games, especially against uptempo teams like Alabama, by controlling the pace and taking these teams out of their desired rhythm in transition – which is exactly what I expect to happen in this matchup.
Ranking top 30 in adjusted height, Saint Mary’s has plenty of size at positions 1 through 5 opposite of Alabama. Mitchell Saxen and Harry Wessels excel at controlling the paint and deterring shots at the rim, and the Gaels crash the glass at an elite rate – boasting top 10 marks in offensive rebounding rate and opposing offensive rebounding rate. While they leave a bit to be desired when it comes to scoring the basketball, Alabama is outside the top 150 in opposing effective field goal percentage over the last month, including its Round of 64 game against Robert Morris – in which the Tide yielded 1.05 points per possession. The Gaels do the little things well enough to keep this game close, so give me the points with Saint Mary’s for my first pick. Playable to +5.
New Mexico Lobos +7.5 vs Michigan State Spartans (-105)
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing
The Spartans are considered the better team in this matchup, but that only goes so far in March. As I mentioned in my Michigan State vs New Mexico game preview, I really like the way the Lobos match-up with this Michigan State squad. Michigan State, while extremely talented, is young and inexperienced at key positions in the back court, and I struggle to trust this team as a favorite against such an aggressive opponent. New Mexico is long and pesky defensively, often getting into the passing lanes and forcing turnovers at a high clip. In fact, the Lobos force turnovers on more than 20% of possessions. They also excel at limiting offensive rebounds with Nelly Junior Joseph in the front court, which is key for success against the Spartans – who are one of the nation’s best on the offensive boards.
In the back court, Donovan Dent is a maestro with his ability to put this offense on his back as a scorer and as a facilitator. He has surpassed 20 points in 7 consecutive games, and he is top 25 nationally in assist rate. His leadership and ability to take over games, in addition to New Mexico’s defensive aggression, should be enough to at least keep this game close. Playable to +5.
