Sam Avellone
While the Round of 64 is over, the chaos of March Madness is far from it. Entering the Round of 32 on Saturday, there is sure to be more drama and hopefully more upsets coming for college basketball fans and bettors. Which of the second round underdogs are going to keep their Cinderella hopes alive? Here are my upset picks for Saturday’s Round of 32 slate.
NCAA Tournament Saturday Underdog picks
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing
McNeese State Cowboys +5.5 over Purdue Boilermakers (-108)
The Cowboys don’t have much size in the front court, but that clearly didn’t hinder them against the Clemson Tigers – who are much bigger than this Purdue team. Where McNeese does have size is in the back court with Copeland. Graded as the best defender on the team per EvanMiya, Copeland figures to make life much more difficult on Braden Smith than High Point. High Point’s drop coverage funnels guards into the mid-range, which is where Smith thrives. However, McNeese is much better defensively in the mid-range and in the paint than High Point. In fact, the Cowboys are 3rd nationally in mid-range rate allowed and top 100 in opposing mid-range shooting percentage (Haslametrics), in addition to being in the 91st percentile while defending on the ball (Hoop-explorer). As such, I don’t see Smith having free-reign in the mid-range in this matchup, especially against a guard that is half a foot taller than him.
On the other end of the floor, McNeese loves to get to the rim. Purdue does a fairly good job at limiting rim rates. However, when the opposition gets to the rim, there is little-to-no resistance from the Boilermakers. In fact, Purdue is 353rd in 2-point defense over the last month (BartTorvik) and blocks shots at one of the lowest rates in the country. In a game that projects to be around 65 possessions or fewer, points may be at a premium, making the points with the underdog that much more valuable. Given the perceived schematic advantages for McNeese, I will take the Cowboys and don’t mind a sprinkle on the money line, either. Playable to +4.
Read our full McNeese State vs Purdue prediction for this second-round matchup.
Gonzaga Bulldogs +5.5 over Houston Cougars (-112)
Having the ability to knock down perimeter shots is crucial for success against Houston’s suffocating defense, and Gonzaga proved that it has that ability on Thursday night. The ‘Zags knocked down 12 of 20 3-point attempts against Georgia, many of them early in the game – propelling them to a dominating victory over the Bulldogs from Athens. While I don’t think they will replicate a 60% shooting performance from the perimeter against Houston, the Zags are capable of making an impact from distance. They have 2 40% 3-point shooters in Ryan Nembhard and Nolan Hickman, and Khalif Battle can heat up at any moment and bury 3 after 3 if he’s left open – as he has knocked down 12 of 27 perimeter shots in Gonzaga’s last 5 games.
Houston’s front court is the cream of the crop defensively, but Graham Ike has a knack for finishing at the rim in traffic and/or getting to the free throw line. In fact, he is 1 of the 40 best players in the country at drawing fouls, which is important against this Cougar squad. Getting J’Wan Roberts or Joseph Tugler into foul trouble would be a significant advantage for Gonzaga. Outside of Ike, the ‘Zags have a couple floor-stretching big men in Braden Huff and Ben Gregg that can put stress on Houston’s defense. Although not the most consistent shooters, Houston will have to honor their ability to stretch the floor, which would open up the lane for Ike to work with less resistance.
Per BartTorvik, Gonzaga is top 20 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency over the last month. The ‘Zags have been very good at defending the perimeter in that time, which will come in handy against one of the best shooting teams Kelvin Sampson has ever had in Houston. Furthermore, the ‘Zags are pretty good on the ball defensively and have as good of a chance as anyone at limiting dribble penetration from Houston’s back court. All things considered, I like Gonzaga to at least keep this Round of 32 game close on Saturday. Playable to +4.
