Sam Avellone
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On to the final day of the opening weekend of March Madness. It’s always a bittersweet day. While it’s the 4th of 4 full days of non-stop hoops, it’s 1 step closer to the end of the college basketball season. For the most part, favorites had their way on Saturday. Arizona, Gonzaga, UNC, Iowa State, Illinois and Creighton cruised to double-digit victories, while NC State and Tennessee won outright without covering. However, I’m not confident favorites will stay hot on Sunday.
There are a couple underdogs I like on Sunday’s card, but before I get to the analysis don’t forget to check Pickswise for NCAA Tournament picks on all sides and totals in the Sweet 16 and beyond.
March Madness Second Round Day 2 Underdog Predictions
Colorado Buffaloes ML (+160) vs Marquette Golden Eagles
Marquette and Colorado come into this matchup in similar form, both ranking in the top 20 in adjusted offensive efficiency and top 40 in adjusted defensive efficiency since February 24. However, I like what I have seen from the Buffaloes this week. They won an absolute grinder of a game against Boise State on Wednesday that played to just 60 possessions, and then turned around and won a barnburner against Florida on Friday that played to 77 possessions. The consecutive wins in 3 days against very stylistically different opponents shows the Buffaloes have a uniquely versatile skill-set that enables them to succeed in uptempo games as well as games that are played primarily in the half court.
I worry about Colorado’s turnovers, but think the ‘Buffs may be able to balance it out by winning the rebounding battle and taking advantage of Marquette’s lulls in its perimeter defense. In addition to leading scorer KJ Simpson, Colorado has 5 key contributors who make at least 39% of its 3-point attempts, which figures to pose a massive threat to the Golden Eagles given their 42.8% 3-point rate allowed. Yielding so many open perimeter shots leaves them vulnerable, and the Golden Eagles have suffered because of it against other great shooting teams in the past; they are 1-5 SU against teams that make at least 36% of shots from beyond the arc. For reference, Colorado has made 39.4% of its perimeter jumpers this season and 40.5% of them in the last month. I like the versatility of the Buffaloes in this matchup, and will take them to eliminate the first #2 seed of the 2024 NCAA Tournament.
Utah State Aggies +11.5 (-110) vs Purdue Boilermakers
Utah State may not spring the upset, but the Aggies should have enough to score with Purdue and keep this game inside the number. Zach Edey will get plenty of shots at the rim against Utah State’s front court on the offensive end, but he might run into some difficult assignments defensively against Great Osobor and Isaac Johnson. Osobor has a bit more quickness than Edey and can likely find success off the ball and in pick-and-rolls, while Johnson can stretch the floor as a shooter from the perimeter. In any case, defending either brings Edey out of the paint and opens up lanes to the basket for Utah State’s cutters — which is an area of weakness for Purdue defensively.
The Boilermakers are outside the top 275 in points allowed per cut according to Synergy, and their defense is not very efficient around the rim when their opponents get there. Assuming the Aggies can force Edey to defend in space away from the rim, they should score with consistency in this matchup and stay inside the number.
