Caleb Wilfinger
Following a wild and unpredictable regular season, this year’s NCAA tournament has got off to a fairly muted start, although we are set up for a tremendous day of high-level basketball on Sunday. We have 8 more games on tap for Sunday’s March Madness action, as the round of 32 rolls on with a matchup between Florida and UConn to start the day, and concludes with Oregon vs Arizona in the East Region.
In anticipation of the round of 32, here are my March Madness best bets for Sunday. Also, be sure to keep an eye on our March Madness picks for expert analysis and bets for EVERY game of the NCAA Tournament!
March Madness best bet: Florida Gators -8.5 over UConn Huskies (-110)
To start our March Madness best bets, we’re looking at UConn vs Florida in a blockbuster Round of 32 matchup. The two-time defending champions won and covered their 13th straight NCAA Tournament game on Friday, but it sure wasn’t easy, as the Huskies needed all 40 minutes to put away an Oklahoma team that was one of the lowest rated teams from the SEC to make the field of 68. This sort of effort was indicative of how the season has gone for a UConn team that has continuously operated in fits and starts, particularly on offense. A lack of consistency is exactly what you don’t want when going up against arguably the best team in the country at the moment, and this is a game where UConn’s lack of talent compared to a true national title contender like Florida should be exposed as the game wears on.
I’ve written about this Florida team at length over the course of the season, but one thing that still impresses me is how the Gators can beat you in a number of different ways. It all starts in the backcourt, as the exceptional guard trio of Will Richard, Walter Clayton Jr. and Alijah Martin form a massive edge for Todd Golden’s team, and it wouldn’t shock me at all if Florida was able to spread out the Huskies on the perimeter and generate wide open looks from beyond the arc. Florida should look to get out and run as much as possible, especially since UConn is not a team that creates havoc or forces live-ball turnovers on defense (282nd in turnovers forced).
The Gators are also elite on the glass (6th in offensive rebounding percentage) while the Huskies are 155th in defensive rebounding rate over the last 3 months, so there should be chances for Florida to attack the glass and generate second-chance points. While UConn is an excellent offensive rebounding team in its own right, I don’t expect that trend to continue against an outstanding Gators frontcourt of 7-footers that should be able to hold their own on the glass, in addition to creating mismatches with their passing and cutting ability on the offensive end. Ultimately, Danny Hurley is still one of the best coaches in the nation, but I don’t see his team being able to keep up with a Gators unit that is elite at every position and one of the deepest teams in the nation to boot. Let’s back Florida to advance to the Sweet 16 in style on Sunday.
Read our full Florida vs UConn prediction
March Madness best bet: New Mexico +7.5 over Michigan State (-110)
For our second March Madness best bet of the day, we’re going to target a game in the South Region between the New Mexico Lobos and Michigan State Spartans. Behind strong efforts from point guard Donovan Dent and big man Nelly Junior Joseph, the Lobos picked up a much-needed win for the Mountain West Conference on Friday over a Marquette team that had been playing well heading into the postseason. Their reward is a date with a Michigan State team that is coming off a somewhat lackluster performance in a win over Bryant. While some would suspect a bounce-back spot for the Spartans in this matchup, I’m more inclined to take the underdog Lobos in a contest that should be closer than what the market expects.
Unlike some other mid-majors in the field, New Mexico has the size and experience to hang with Michigan State. As my colleague Sam Avellone mentioned, the Lobos have been excellent defensively this season, posting a top 20 mark in adjusted efficiency (Barttorvik), while ranking inside the top 20 in defensive rebounding rate and top 30 in turnovers forced. Those areas are key against a Spartans team that is excellent on the offensive glass, but can also be prone to turning the ball over (139th in turnover percentage this season). If the Lobos are going to keep this one close, they’ll need to attack the glass with fervor and challenge Michigan State’s offense to hit shots from beyond the arc, where the Spartans are 316th in 3-point percentage this season. This is also a battle of pace, and the Lobos should be able to shrink the talent and athleticism gap in this game thanks to their more chaotic brand of basketball in the open court (4th nationally in adjusted tempo).
For those that haven’t been watching New Mexico this season, few guards in the country are as dynamic as Dent, and he’s proven on multiple occasions that he can produce under pressure against top competition. New Mexico’s ancillary pieces proved to be up to the challenge against Marquette, as the Lobos were able to generate offense down the stretch of that game despite Dent having a pretty middling game by his standards (41% FG, 8 turnovers). Michigan State’s defense is a top 10 unit nationally for a reason, but it’s also important to note that teams are likely due for some positive regression in the 3-point shooting department against Tom Izzo’s group, with the Spartans sitting at 1st in the nation in 3-point percentage allowed, despite allowing plenty of open looks each game (316th in 3-point rate allowed). I’m expecting a lower-scoring affair in this matchup, which also points me in the direction of the underdog on Sunday.
Read our expert’s full New Mexico vs Michigan State prediction
