Caleb Wilfinger
After a wild and unpredictable regular season, this year’s NCAA tournament has got off to a fairly muted start, although it is setting us up for a tremendous weekend of high-level basketball. We’ve got 8 more games on tap for Saturday’s March Madness action, as the Round of 32 gets underway with a matchup between McNeese State and Purdue and concludes with UCLA vs Tennessee in the Midwest Region.
In anticipation of the Round of 32, here are my March Madness best bets for Saturday. Also, be sure to keep an eye on our March Madness picks for expert analysis and bets for EVERY game of the NCAA Tournament!
March Madness best bet: Texas A&M -2.5 over Michigan (-110)
To start our March Madness best bets, we’re looking at Michigan vs Texas A&M. Both the Wolverines and Aggies got past their first tests with single-digit victories to advance to the weekend session. In the case of Michigan, it was another instance of the Wolverines getting past an opponent that had an outlier shooting performance from beyond the arc (UC San Diego shot well below its season average), and there were certainly a few calls near the end of the game that benefited the Wolverines. However, Michigan did what it needed to do to survive and advance, and that’s all that matters come tournament time. With that said, this is not an ideal matchup for the Wolverines and Michigan’s memorable run over the last 10 days could come to an end on Saturday.
Texas A&M has been a frustrating team to handicap over the last month because the Aggies clearly have the talent and coaching to push themselves over the top, but continued to struggle with poor shooting and inconsistent play from senior point guard Wade Taylor down the stretch in SEC play. However, this is a team that has repeatedly shown up in big games under head coach Buzz Williams, and that’s exactly what we saw in March a season ago when the Aggies took top-seeded Houston to overtime in the Round of 32. This is a much better matchup this time around, as Texas A&M is playing a team that it should be able to turn over, with Michigan’s offense ranked 330th in turnover percentage.
The Aggies also live on the glass as the nation’s top offensive rebounding team, something that they can use to their advantage against a Michigan front line that is a below average defensive rebounding unit, despite its size. Points in the paint will be hard to come by as well for a Wolverines team that struggles to score from the outside and needs those touches for Vladislav Goldin and Danny Wolf in the paint. Finally, the close game regression might not ever come for Michigan at this point, but it is worth mentioning that the Wolverines continue to win one possession games where almost everything goes right for them in the final minutes. I’ll put that to the test by backing Texas A&M to win and cover on Saturday.
Read our full Texas A&M vs Michigan prediction
March Madness best bet: BYU vs Wisconsin Over 154.5 (-110)
One of the best games on Saturday’s March Madness slate takes place in the East Region, as the BYU Cougars will take on the Wisconsin Badgers in a game that should feature plenty of points. BYU is largely a jump-shooting based team that has the ability to knock down shots from all over the court, thanks to the myriad of quality shooters that head coach Kevin Young can have on the floor at any given moment. BYU’s offense is generally elite in any venue, and like we saw against an excellent VCU defense on Thursday, the Cougars generate a lot of high-percentage shots (6th in effective field goal percentage).
The Cougars should be able to make Wisconsin’s backcourt pay with their fluid motion offense on the perimeter, and that doesn’t bode well for the Badgers. This is a Wisconsin that defense doesn’t force turnovers and can be had from beyond the 3-point arc, which is obviously where this BYU team wants to live.
As for the Badgers, Greg Gard’s team is coming off a routine victory over Montana in which Wisconsin’s offense got back on track in a major way following its poor performance in the Big Ten title game. That success should carry over into this matchup against a BYU defense that has been on the right side of some very fortunate shooting variance from its opponents of late. Considering that Wisconsin is one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the nation, I wouldn’t expect the Cougars to get this fortunate once again on Saturday.
Furthermore, the Cougars don’t do a good enough job of forcing turnovers (175th in turnover percentage) and they allow a ton of open looks from beyond the arc (334rd in 3-point rate allowed). If there was ever a team to take advantage of these lapses, it would be this Wisconsin program that has been shooting the cover off the ball from 3-point range. All things considered, let’s take the over in Denver to bring home our March Madness best bets.
Read our expert’s full BYU Cougars vs Wisconsin Badgers prediction
