Sam Avellone
With the first round in the rearview mirror, the Round of 32 gets underway on Saturday. Starting with #4 Purdue vs #12 McNeese State at 12:10pm ET and ending with #2 Tennessee vs #7 UCLA at 9:40pm ET, there will be March Madness action throughout the day to watch and bet on. With so much simultaneous live action, I believe a parlay is in order. Here are my favorite parlay picks for Saturday’s Round of 32, and don’t forget to check out the rest of our March Madness predictions for every game of the NCAA Tournament!
McNeese State +5.5 (-108)
Texas A&M ML (-148)
Tennessee ML (-205)
Round of 32 Saturday parlay odds: +380
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing
McNeese State Cowboys +5.5 over Purdue Boilermakers (-108)
I don’t see Braden Smith getting whatever he wants against McNeese State like he did against High Point. The Cowboys are much stronger defensively in the mid-range, ranking 3rd nationally in mid-range attempt rate and top 100 in mid-range shooting percentage (Haslametrics). A lot of that success has to do with their size in the back court, namely with Quadir Copeland. Standing at 6’6”, he is McNeese’s most important defender per EvanMiya and half a foot taller than Smith. His range will likely be troublesome for Smith, not only in the mid-range but on dribble-drives and perimeter shots. Turning Smith into more of a facilitator than all-around playmaker is the way to beat Purdue in my opinion, as the Boilermakers need his scoring to achieve their ceiling offensively – especially if Fletcher Loyer continues to struggle to produce. To the same effect, if Purdue’s offensive ceiling is lowered by Copeland’s defense on Smith, it’s difficult to find confidence in laying points with the Boilermakers given their defensive struggles over the last month (279th adjusted efficiency).
Read our full McNeese State vs Purdue prediction for this Round of 32 matchup!
Texas A&M Aggies ML over Michigan Wolverines (-148)
I like the physicality the Aggies present in this matchup against the Wolverines. Texas A&M is the best offensive rebounding team in the country, and Michigan has had a tough time with teams that rebound at that rate. In fact, Michigan is 0-3 SU in games against Michigan State (twice) and Illinois, which are the only other teams the Wolverines have played that are top 30 in offensive rebounding rate. In addition to being elite on the boards, Texas A&M is annoying to play against defensively. The Aggies can get into the passing lanes and disrupt their opponents, which is advantageous for them against a Michigan team that often turns the ball over. For reference, the Wolverines give the ball away on nearly 20% of their possessions, ranking outside the top 325 in turnover rate. Meanwhile, the Aggies haven’t lost to anyone outside the top 175 in turnover rate. I expect Texas A&M to win the shot volume battle and, therefore, the game.
Tennessee Volunteers ML over UCLA Bruins (-205)
Like Tennessee, UCLA is a slow-paced team that is strong defensively, but I question the Bruins’ upside against the Volunteers – especially on the offensive end. The Bruins haven’t been the most efficient when playing away from Pauley Pavilion, as their effective field goal percentage drops nearly 6% in those games. They have forwards that can stretch the floor, although I’m not convinced they will have much room to operate against a versatile front court that can defend on the perimeter and in the paint. Furthermore, Tennessee’s wings are long and can disrupt action in the mid-range with said length and physicality, which is where UCLA likes to operate when it has the ball.
Expecting a low-possession game against similarly-paced and strong defensive teams, I prefer to be on the team with the more reliable offense. For my money, that’s Tennessee, as the Vols simply have more ways to beat you. They effectively have 4 players that average double-digit points per game (Igor Milicic averages 9.9), and have the better and more experienced back court when it comes to postseason play. Zakai Zeigler, Jordan Gainey and Jamai Mashack were part of Tennessee’s deep run last year, while senior Chaz Lanier offers the offensive upside the Vols had with Dalton Knecht a season ago. If the Bruins are able to limit Lanier with Kobe Johnson’s defense, Zeigler and Gainey figure to bear the load in much easier 1-on-1 matchups. All things considered, I like Tennessee to win this one and advance to the Sweet 16.
