Matt Marquart
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Sunday brings eight games with a trip to the Sweet 16 on the line. Friday’s games brought four seed upsets, with Iowa State, Notre Dame, and Miami winning as underdogs of at least a bucket. This article looks at a few underdogs in Sunday’s matchups to consider backing. Odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
Texas +3.5
The Longhorns played an impressive second half to defeat #11 seed Virginia Tech on Friday, looking like the team many predicted we would see for most of the season. It’s fair to call Texas’s regular season a disappointment, as they finished just 10-8 in the Big 12 and lost in the first round of the Big 12 Tournament. Despite that, their metrics remained high all season and all that matters now is their matchup with Purdue. Before we get into the schematic matchup, it’s worth noting that Texas coach Chris Beard has beaten Purdue’s Matt Painter twice in the NCAA Tournament, with two different schools. In 2016, #5 seed Purdue lost in double overtime to Beard’s #12 seed Little Rock team. Two years later, Beard’s Texas Tech squad got the best of Purdue again — this time in the Sweet 16. Perhaps this is just randomness, or perhaps Beard has figured out Painter’s plan.
In this matchup, the Texas defense will be the key to the game. I have written multiple times about how Purdue uses post-up’s at the second-highest rate in the entire country. Purdue destroyed first-round opponent Yale in the paint, as Zach Edey went for 16 points and shot 10 free-throws. This will likely be much more difficult against a Texas frontcourt that helps the Longhorns rank 44th nationally in two-point field goal defense. The Texas defense ranks 13th in the country per KenPom and in the 96th percentile in half-court defense per Synergy, so they’ll have a good chance of keeping Purdue’s offense in check.
On the other end, the Texas offense has the quickness on the perimeter to take advantage of a Purdue defense that ranks just 92nd in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric. The biggest takeaway from Texas’s win over Virginia Tech was the play of Marcus Carr. Carr has taken a lot of heat this season for not living up to expectations this year, but he was spectacular in the First Round. Carr scored 15 points on 6-for-11 shooting and racked up nine assists with just one turnover. This matchup presents a great opportunity for Carr to repeat this performance, particularly in pick-and-roll. Purdue’s defense ranks in just the 11th percentile in pick-and-roll defense this season, so it’s very possible that Carr turns in another good game. If he does, the Longhorns will have a great chance of marching on to the Sweet 16.
Illinois +4.5
The Fighting Illini are extremely fortunate to be playing this game. Illinois trailed for 39 minutes in their first-round game against Chattanooga before narrowly escaping at the end. It was a dreadful performance, as the Fighting Illini scored just 0.83 points per possession thanks to shooting 3-for-17 from beyond the arc and 13-for-22 at the free-throw line. If they play like that again against Houston, they will certainly get blown out. However, there’s some value in backing the Illini in a bounce-back effort.
From a matchup perspective, we surely can expect Illinois to shoot better from the three-point line, as they rank inside the top 50 in three-point percentage. Houston’s defense is very difficult to beat in the paint, but it does leave them susceptible to good three-point shooting. Per KenPom, the Cougars rank 317th in opponent three-point attempt rate, so provided that Illinois can shoot better than they did in round one it will have a chance to score efficiently.
On the other end, the Illinois defense should be able to limit Houston’s scoring at the rim. Per Hoop-Math, Illinoi allows the seventh-lowest percentage of opponent shots at the rim in the entire country. This will be key against Houston’s Fabian White and Josh Carlton, who combined for 26 points against UAB. The Illinois defense is also very good at limiting three-point attempts from their opponent, evidenced by their ranking of fifth in that category, per KenPom. This is also a key when stopping the Houston offense, as the Cougars just connected on 10 of their 21 three-point shots in their round one win. Illinois will absolutely need to play better, but look for them to keep this to a one-possession game, and maybe even win outright.
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