Andrew Ortenberg
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It’s a special time of year. March Madness is officially here, and this weekend should be special. We’ll be treated to 48 NCAA Tournament games from Thursday-Sunday, and here at Pickswise we’ll have free picks on the side and total for all of them. We also have a ton of other content coming, so be sure to keep an eye on our March Madness hub.
Before placing any of your wagers, it’s important to study the betting market and track its movement. Today we’ll be taking a look at where the public money has been going. Both how futures odds have changed over time, and how bet splits are shaping up for Round of 64 games. Let’s dive in:
March Madness futures odds movement
The futures market has consistently had Gonzaga as the top dog throughout most of the season. But after that there’s been a lot of fluidity. At FanDuel Sportsbook, Arizona currently has the second-lowest odds to win it all at +600. The Wildcats have consistently been taking money over the last few months. Back in mid-November, you could’ve got them at around 70/1. By December they were down to around 20/1, by the end of January it was 15/1 and by late February it was 7/1.
Arizona hasn’t been the only big mover. Kentucky was 20/1 in mid-January, and now they have the third-lowest odds at +850. Auburn has also steadily crept up the standings. The Tigers were around 60/1 for the early stretch of the season, but are now in sixth-place at +1600.
Those have been the futures odds that got adjusted most throughout the course of the season. Now it’s time to turn our attention to the actual tournament games and how those markets have been moving…
March Madness public money report
#4 Arkansas (-5) vs #13 Vermont
Vermont is shaping up to be a somewhat trendy underdog. The Catamounts opened as 6.5-point underdogs, but that number has quickly come down to +5. Multiple sportsbooks have reported Vermont getting a significantly higher portion of handle than of bet slips, meaning that the larger volume bets have been on Vermont. They could be the ‘sharp’ side here.
#2 Villanova (-15.5) vs #15 Delaware
Vermont isn’t the only high seed that’s taking money. #15 Delaware has seen a couple points of movement in this favor. The line opened around Villanova -17.5, but that’s since come down to -15.5 at FanDuel after the Blue Hens took some respected money. Delaware has taken a strong majority of both the bet tickets and the handle.
#3 Wisconsin (-7.5) vs #14 Colgate
Colgate is another underdog that’s been getting steamed down. As of yesterday BetMGM was reporting that 78 percent of the bets and 84 percent of the public money were coming in on Colgate. March is the only time of year that the public really seems to consistently rally around underdogs. In almost any other setting in any other sport they gravitate toward favorites, but not for March Madness. Colgate is shooting better than 40 percent from deep as a team, so it’s not too surprising there’s some buzz building around them.
#11 Michigan (-2.5) vs #6 Colorado State
Switching things up here with a favorite after all those ‘dogs. Michigan is the higher seed at #11, but bettors certainly don’t think it should be that way. In fact, they’re swarming to lay the points with the Wolverines as a short favorite. As of Monday, Michigan -2.5 was the third most popular bet on the board, per the Action Network.
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