Sam Avellone
There are many ways to bet on the NCAA Tournament futures. You can pick a national champion, which is probably the most popular future bet in March, but you can also bet on teams to reach certain rounds absent of winning a championship. Betting on teams to reach the Final Four has become increasingly popular, but what about finding value on teams to make the Sweet 16? For as much content as there is for March Madness, I don’t often see Sweet 16 best bets angles. We at Pickswise have you covered in that department, along with many other pieces of unique content including a full 68-team March Madness bracket guide.
With the opening round of the 2025 NCAA Tournament quickly approaching, there’s no sense in wasting your time. Here are my favorite picks to make the Sweet 16 this year in the NCAA Tournament, all with plus-money odds.
Men’s NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 picks
Best bet to reach the Sweet 16: Clemson Tigers (+140)
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
I was surprised to see Clemson approaching +150 to make the Sweet 16 at some books. While McNeese State is a popular upset pick, I’m not sold on their ability to beat the Tigers. The Cowboys haven’t proven an ability to beat top-50 teams this season, much less score 70 points against them. Clemson boasts a top-20 defense and has wins over Duke and Kentucky under its belt, and while Dillon Hunter’s absence is huge on the defensive end of the floor – there is still plenty of experience on this roster to mask his absence for a couple of games.
A potential second-round date with Purdue is intriguing. There is a chance Clemson would be a favorite in that game. In any case, I like the Tigers in a potential matchup with the Boilermakers, as Braden Smith, Trey Kaufman-Renn and the rest of the Purdue roster seemed to be running out of gas down the stretch. If Clemson met High Point in the second round, the Tigers would likely benefit from frontcourt advantages with Viktor Lakhin and Ian Schieffelin. The Panthers have a couple of pieces in the paint, but it’s hard to find confidence in their upside against power conference opponents given the fact that they have just 1 game against a top 100 team on their resume (North Texas). Let’s roll with Clemson as the first of my Sweet 16 best bets.
Find out our March Madness winner predictions, including a longshot pick at +6000 odds!
Prediction to reach the Sweet 16: Saint Mary’s Gaels (+320)
Odds courtesy of Bet365 at the time of publishing.
Next up in my Sweet 16 best bets are the Gaels. Saint Mary’s has its shortcomings on the offensive end of the floor, which is worrisome when you’re investing in this team making it to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament. However, the Gaels play a very unique and interesting brand of basketball that is designed to completely take opponents out of the rhythm and flow of a game. They pair the 5th-slowest adjusted tempo in the country with a top-10 defense that excels at limiting perimeter shots and makes it difficult to score around the rim. Moreover, the Gaels are among the nation’s best in creating second-chance opportunities via offensive rebounds, while simultaneously limiting opposing offensive rebounds at a top-12 rate.
The Gaels will likely have to go through 2 SEC teams to get to the Sweet 16, but I think they are capable of winning both of those matchups. They are 3.5-point favorites against Vanderbilt in the opening round, projected to advance to the Round of 32 65.5% of the time per BartTorvik – which is in line with how the sportsbooks value them against the Commodores.
Then, the Gaels would likely face #2 Alabama with a chance to advance to the Sweet 16. It would be an uphill battle, but again, the Gaels play at a very methodical and deliberate pace. That style of play would disrupt Alabama’s desired flow as the fastest-paced team in the country that thrives in transition. Vanderbilt plays fast as well, so a first-round matchup against the Commodores is a nice tune-up for a potential game against the Tide. Conversely, preparing for Randy Bennett and the Gaels on a quick turnaround isn’t exactly ideal for Nate Oats and his staff. For what it’s worth, Saint Mary’s held Gonzaga to 62-63 possessions in 3 matchups this season.
Assuming Saint Mary’s gets past Vanderbilt, the Gaels would probably be somewhere around a 5-7 point underdog against Alabama in the second round. Their money line price would likely be lower than this if that ended up being the case.
Now check out our NCAA Tournament Final Four best bets, which includes a pick at +500 odds
Longshot pick to reach the Sweet 16: Yale Bulldogs (+920)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
The Ivy League champions’ path to the Sweet 16 runs through Texas A&M and either Michigan or UC San Diego. It will be an uphill battle for the Bulldogs, but the odds reflect that. While 0-2 against power conference teams this year, the Bulldogs were very much in both of those games – at Purdue and at Minnesota. Yale limits offensive rebounds at a top-25 rate nationally and excels in taking away offense at and around the rim, which are 2 critical characteristics for their matchup with Texas A&M. They also knock down threes at a top-10 rate (38.5%) and limit turnovers (19th in turnover rate) on the offensive end, thanks to the play of senior guards Bez Mbeng and John Poulakidas – both of whom shoot better than 37% from the perimeter.
Texas A&M is the biggest test in this venture, as a second-round matchup with either Michigan or UC San Diego would be a slight step down in class for Yale after a game against the Aggies. While I would prefer the Bulldogs face UC San Diego in the second round, how awesome would it be to see Danny Wolf play against his former team – 1 year removed from an upset win over #4 Auburn? The Bulldogs would be live against the Wolverines via Michigan’s turnover woes and offensive inconsistencies, but the Wolverines would have a decent size advantage.
Furthermore, Yale’s experience in the backcourt would help alleviate pressure against UC San Diego’s defense, and I believe the Bulldogs could take advantage of a Triton defense that is outside the top 325 in 3-point rate allowed. There’s plenty of risk in this pick, but also plenty of upside – which is exactly what we are looking for in a March Madness future and why they’re one of my Sweet 16 best bets.
Let the madness begin! See our expert’s First Four best bets
