Caleb Wilfinger
After a long and unpredictable college basketball season, the full 68-team bracket is out and March Madness is finally here! In this article, we will be analyzing the Final Four futures market to see where value may lie among the elite teams in this year’s tournament. Once we review the odds and top contenders to reach the Final Four in San Antonio, we will have our best bets for a team to win their region, as well as a potential longshot to consider. Let’s first take a look at the odds and our best bet to make the Final Four, while you can also get our college basketball picks for EVERY game in the NCAA Tournament.
Find out our expert’s NCAA First Four predictions
2025 March Madness Final Four Odds
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook and available at time of publishing.
- Duke (-145)
- Florida (-125)
- Auburn (-105)
- Houston (+120)
- Tennessee (+370)
- Alabama (+440)
- Michigan State (+500)
- Texas Tech (+500)
- Iowa State (+550)
- Arizona (+800)
At the moment, there are a whopping 3 teams that do not have plus-money odds to reach the Final Four. Duke is atop the odds market, which is not surprising given the fact that they are arguably the best team in the country and the top-ranked team in the predictive metrics. 2 of the other #1 seeds are the favorites to win their region, with Florida (-125) and Auburn (-105) right behind Duke in the odds list. The final #1 seed, Houston, has one of the best defenses in the country and has been in the top 5 at KenPom for the majority of the year. Oddsmakers are expecting a lot of chalk with these Final Four odds, so let’s get into our best bets for this market.
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March Madness Final Four Best Bet: Florida Gators (-125)
For my best bet to reach the Final Four, I am taking the Florida Gators to make it through the West Region. This is a loaded region, but I’m still not eager to step in front of a Florida side that I’ve been a major supporter of since the nonconference portion of the season. The Gators are absolutely rolling heading into this tournament, having won 6 straight and 12 of their last 13 games, and Florida looks like the most complete team in the nation on both sides of the ball at the moment. The Gators also have arguably the best road wins in the nation over Auburn and Alabama, so we know that Todd Golden’s team can get it done on a neutral-site court in high-pressure moments.
Florida’s success all starts in the backcourt with the exceptional guard trio of Will Richard, Walter Clayton Jr. and Alijah Martin. However, it’s the quartet of big men that makes the Gators such a dangerous team with their ability to pass, cut and rebound in traffic. Florida wasn’t given many favors with its draw, as the West Region features a couple of excellent teams, including St. John’s, Texas Tech and Maryland, among others. However, Florida is a whopping 5-1 against the trio of Auburn, Tennessee and Alabama for a reason, so the Gators won’t be intimated against the best competition from conferences that are noticeably weaker than the SEC this season. At the end of the day, this price can only get shorter, so I’ll take it at the current number as the first of my Final Four best bets.
See our expert’s NCAA Tournament winner predictions for March Madness, including a +6000 longshot!
March Madness Final Four longshot pick: Michigan State Spartans (+500)
For my longshot pick, I am going with the Michigan State Spartans to get back to the Final Four under head coach Tom Izzo. While this price isn’t exactly the longest in the field, the Spartans have a pretty clear path to the second weekend, making this number simply too good to pass up. Michigan State has developed into a typical Tom Izzo team over the course of the season, as the Spartans now fit his typical style of a gritty, defense-first unit and that will come in handy against new opponents in March who will need to adapt to playing against a team of this caliber.
On the other side of the ball, the Spartans’ offense is elite in transition with freshman guard Jase Richardson pulling the strings, and Michigan State has the ability to make its opponents play at the pace it wants, which is also a big edge against teams from other conferences who haven’t faced the Spartans yet this season. If the chalk holds through the first couple of rounds, Michigan State would have to play top-seeded Auburn in an Elite Eight matchup. However, the Tigers have limped into this field, having lost 3 of their last 4 games and making this a winnable matchup as a result. If the Spartans are able to make the Elite Eight, this ticket should have a ton of value against any opponent. Let’s go with MSU for the second of my Final Four best bets.
Get set for your bracket with our March Madness 68-team guide, featuring analysis on EVERY team in the tournament
