Matt Marquart
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It’s the best time of the year if you ask me, as college basketball takes center stage for March Madness. The bracket is set and besides diving into every single matchup (which we do here at Pickswise, by the way), another popular topic of conversation is which region is the strongest and weakest, and ultimately the water cooler conversation of “who’s your pick to win it all?” Let’s take a look at the updated odds to cut down the nets on April 4 courtesy of FanDuel.
Four teams sit at 10/1 or shorter odds to win the National Championship and they are Gonzaga (+300), Arizona (+600), Kentucky (+850), and Kansas (+1000). This comes as no surprise, as Gonzaga, Arizona, and Kansas are the top seed in their respective regions, and #2 Kentucky is in the East Region where Baylor (+1200) is the top seed. Baylor’s resume is better than their current form, as the Bears have been plagued by injuries.
Baylor makes up the second tier of title contenders, followed by Auburn (+1600), Duke (+1700), Villanova (+2000) and Purdue (+2000). Duke and Auburn both had a brief stint as the number one team in the AP Poll this year and feature two of the top five or so picks in the upcoming NBA Draft in Jabari Smith and Paolo Banchero.
The final tier worth mentioning as true national title contenders all sit at +2500 and is made up by Tennessee, Texas Tech, and Iowa. What is interesting in this tier is that Tennessee and Texas Tech rank in the top 10 in KenPom’s efficiency rankings, yet are priced much further below the tier above.
Approaching the March Madness betting market
Of course, it’s important to look at teams that you actually believe are capable of winning the tournament. If the intention is to take a team with longer odds with the goal of hedging, that is usually more difficult than anticipated. Even if a longshot were to somehow make the National Championship game, their opponent would likely be one of the elite teams, meaning the money line price to hedge would be very steep.
The other important thing to consider is likely obvious as well, but it is the path of the team you pick. Looking at regions that appear to be weaker is a worthy consideration when selecting a future.
March Madness winner best bet
This choice came down to three teams for me: Gonzaga, Arizona and Kentucky. Obviously, these are the three best teams in the opinion of the futures market, and I agree. They’re the top three teams in KenPom’s rankings and I believe they all have no identifiable red flags.
I was hoping to take Arizona, but they have the toughest path in my opinion, having Houston, Illinois, Tennessee, and Villanova in their region. Arizona has lost just one game to a team ranked outside the KenPom top 10, and that was to Colorado on the second leg of the infamous Pac-12 mountain road trip. I also wouldn’t fault anyone for taking Gonzaga, as I believe they truly are the best team. I’m just not sure I’d look to take them at just +300 in a single-elimination tournament.
However, I am going to go with Kentucky at +850 to win the National Championship. The Wildcats rank fourth in adjusted offensive efficiency and 27th in adjusted defensive efficiency, making them a balanced team. The thing that swayed me to Kentucky is their potential path. The Wildcats could get Purdue in the Sweet 16, and I think they match up well. They have the size to battle with Trevion Williams and Zach Edey and I think Kentucky has the athleticism to take advantage of a shaky Purdue perimeter defense. The Wildcats are also in the region with the weakest #1 seed in Baylor, as the Bears have been decimated by injuries to LJ Cryer and Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua.
March Madness best longshot
If you’re looking for a team with longer odds, I’m going with Tennessee at +2500. As mentioned above, it is not wise in my opinion to take a team with odds too much higher than this. Other than the 2013-14 Connecticut team, no team to win the National Championship has had odds lower than +2500.
As previously discussed, Tennessee is rated much higher in analytics sites than they are being priced. The Vols ranked seventh in KenPom, seventh in BartTorvik, and 11th in Haslametrics. Tennessee has been a great defensive team all season, but the knock on them has been the offense. Since February 1st, Tennessee ranks 21st in BartTorvik’s offensive efficiency metrics. It’s unlikely, but Tennessee is best choice among the teams priced +2000 or lower.
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