Ricky Dimon
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And then there were 4… The NCAA Tournament semifinals in Glendale, Arizona should provide plenty of entertainment, with a field that features two #1 seeds (UConn, Purdue), a #4 seed that averages more than 90 points per game (Alabama) and a Cinderella #11 seed that needed to win its conference tournament just to get into March Madness (NC State). Saturday night’s first semifinal showdown pits the upstart Wolfpack against the powerhouse Boilermakers. Zach Edey and company are significant favorites, but the ‘Pack are riding a 9-game winning streak. Here is my NC State vs Purdue Same Game Parlay for the huge matchup, which will be televised starting at 6:09 pm ET on TBS.
NC State +3.5 alternate spread (+220)
Under 146.5 (-110)
Mohamed Diarra to score 10+ points (+130)
NC State vs Purdue Same Game Parlay odds: +1135
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as Mohamed Diarra scoring in double-figures obviously works well with N.C. State covering a small spread. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with also backing the under, but there is no reason why that can’t cash even if Diarra pours in a decent amount of points. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
NC State +3.5 alternate spread over Purdue (+220)
On the actual line (+9.5), the Wolfpack have to keep the margin in single-digits. To heck with that; I think they can keep the game within 1 possession. DJ Burns Jr. and the rest of the ‘Pack are enjoying one of the most incredible runs in college basketball history. They won 5 games in 5 days to cut down the nets at the ACC Tournament and have parlayed that into NCAA Tournament victories over Texas Tech, Oakland, Marquette and Duke. This isn’t some kind of fluke. A 9-game winning streak that includes 2 defeats of Duke constitutes a large enough sample size to prove that head coach Kevin Keatt’s club is for real. Burns has been the darling of March, while DJ Horne is also playing his basketball at just the right time. I see NC State giving Purdue enough problems on both ends of the floor to keep this contest competitive for a full 40 minutes.
Read our full NC State Wolfpack vs Purdue Boilermakers predictions
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Under 146.5 (-110)
Edey vs Burns in the paint is must-watch television. In fact, that individual matchup just by itself should have been worthy of putting this game in the primetime slot ahead of what will presumably be UConn destroying Alabama. Whatever the case, NC State vs Purdue should be fun regardless of tip-off time. Burns has the size to bang with Edey down low. The left-hander’s height disadvantage will make scoring a bit difficult, but at the other end of the floor, he can make life tough on Edey.
Moreover, the bottom line is that the under correlates nicely with my N.C. State pick. After all, the Wolfpack probably need to keep the game low-scoring if they want to be competitive or even win outright. Purdue has given up 50, 67, 68 and 66 points so far in the Big Dance, so it’s safe to assume that NCSU isn’t in line for a scoring binge. Instead, the ‘Pack will have to get defensive – and they can. It’s worth noting that Edey went crazy to the tune of 40 points in the Midwest Region final against Tennessee and the Boilermakers still scored a modest 72 overall.
Mohamed Diarra to score 10+ points (+130)
The DJs get the most publicity for NC State (and for good reason), but don’t sleep on Diarra. The 6’10’’ forward has scored in double-figures in 4 of the last 5 games, dating back to the ACC Tournament final. Edey obviously makes scoring in the paint a tall task, so the Wolfpack will likely have to do damage from the perimeter. Yes, Diarra scores a fair amount down low; but he also wields an outside game. The Frenchman has drained at least 1 three-pointer in 10 of the last 14 outings, and Purdue just watched Tennessee go 11-for-26 from downtown. Diarra is on a hot streak right now and I expect it to continue.
Now read our Alabama vs UConn predictions for Saturday’s other Final Four matchup
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