Ricky Dimon
Following 4 days of March Madness action last week, we are down from 64 to the Sweet 16. SEC regular-season champion and No. 1 overall NCAA Tournament seed Auburn Tigers are looking to make a statement and progress to the Elite 8, but in their way stands the Michigan Wolverines on Friday night in Atlanta. Let’s get into our Michigan vs Auburn Same Game Parlay picks for this South Region semifinal, which tips off at approximately 9:39 pm ET. You can also find out our March Madness predictions for every game in the NCAA Tournament.
Auburn -9.5 (-104)
Over 153.5 (-112)
Miles Kelly to score 15+ points (+140)
Michigan vs Auburn Same Game Parlay odds: +600
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is the entire plan here, as Miles Kelly scoring plenty of points would obviously work well with both an Auburn cover and the over. Let’s break down all of the SGP legs.
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Auburn Tigers -9.5 over Michigan Wolverines (-104)
These 2 teams advanced to the Sweet 16 in considerably different fashions. Auburn blasted both Alabama State and Creighton – a Creighton squad that had looked extremely impressive in round 1 against Louisville. Michigan struggled with both UC San Diego and Texas A&M. The Wolverines almost blew a double-digit lead against the Tritons and trailed the Aggies by double-digits at halftime.
UM relies on its low-post duo of 7-footers Vlad Goldin and Danny Wolf, but Auburn defends the paint extremely well – mainly thanks to Johni Broome, Dylan Cardwell and Chaney Johnson. As such, this should be a pretty favorable matchup for the Tigers. They also have a big edge in the backcourt, led by Chad Baker-Mazara (12.5 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 2.7 apg, 1.1 spg) and sharpshooter Miles Kelly. It’s also worth noting that this will be a borderline home game for Auburn in Atlanta, so look for the favorites to win big.
Read our full Michigan vs Auburn prediction
Over 153.5 (-112)
I think an Over play correlates well with the Tigers covering, as the Wolverines are in the top 70 in the land in scoring (78.3 ppg). For the most part, you aren’t going to defeat Michigan by a substantial margin if you aren’t scoring a bunch of points. Auburn does exactly that. In fact, it ranks 9th nationally at 83.8 ppg. Broome (18.4 ppg) leads 4 other teammates, who also average in double-figures. As the inferior team on paper, it would probably be in UM’s best interest to play this contest at a relatively slow pace. However, that is not the Wolverines’ style. They are 4th in the country in pace of play (73.0 possessions per contest). I expect both teams to play their part in cashing the Over on Friday.
Find out our top CBB expert’s Sweet 16 best bets for today’s action
Miles Kelly to score 15+ points (+140)
Kelly has to be considered one of the streakiest players in the nation. He is prone to being a no-show, but he can just as easily catch fire from deep and go crazy for 20 or even 30 points. The former Georgia Tech standout torched Kentucky for 30 on March 1, making 9 of 14 three-point attempts. Kelly has already delivered a 23-point performance in the NCAA Tournament, going 7-for-15 from downtown during a first-round rout of Alabama State.
Michigan is very good at defending the 3-ball, but it’s not like Kelly is an entirely 1-dimensional player. On March 3, he scored 12 points against Texas A&M without making a three-pointer and sinking only 1 shot from the floor, going 10-for-10 from the free-throw line. In February, he pinned 15 points on Alabama while making just 2 triples. Kelly was cold in the 2nd round against Creighton; I expect him to heat back up at Michigan’s expense.
Lock in our March Madness Sweet 16 parlay picks for tonight at HUGE +1175 odds!
