Caleb Wilfinger
The first round of the NCAA Tournament continues on Friday, and we have 16 great games on the schedule for this loaded March Madness slate. Who knows what the day’s events will bring, but it’s likely that we’ll see a few upsets, which is part of what defines these early rounds of the NCAA Tournament each season. You can be almost sure that at least 1 team will deliver a program-defining win each year, no matter if that team ultimately falls short of a Final Four or even an Elite Eight appearance.
There will always be surprises; the key to building better brackets and better betting is to identify the right ones. Yesterday, we saw upsets from McNeese State and Drake, while UC San Diego nearly pulled off the upset over Michigan. What will Friday have in store for us? It’s almost time to find out. Let’s get into my best March Madness underdog picks and upset predictions for the second day of the NCAA Tournament, while you can also check out our March Madness predictions for EVERY game!
March Madness underdog pick: New Mexico Lobos +4 over Marquette Golden Eagles (-110)
We’ve got an exciting matchup on our hands between a couple of compelling teams as the New Mexico Lobos are set to take on the Marquette Golden Eagles on Friday. Marquette is a team that I’ve been looking to fade for a while now, as the Golden Eagles have been an extremely inconsistent side since January 1, ranking outside of the top 40 in Barttorvik (54th in offensive efficiency, 32nd in defensive efficiency) over the past 2 months. The Golden Eagles are extremely dependent on Cam Jones on offense, and while Jones is a terrific veteran guard, the offense has simply been too one-dimensional in recent weeks.
On the other side, New Mexico is led by its superstar guard Donavan Dent, who leads an offense that attacks the basket and gets to the free-throw line against a defense that is outside the top 200 in free-throw rate allowed. The biggest edge for New Mexico in this game will be on the boards, led by big man Nelly Junior Joseph, who is an absolute force on the interior and should feast against a Marquette team that is outside the top 200 in rebounding rate on both sides of the ball. This is a game that should come down to the wire, so I’ll back the Lobos with the points in this one.
Check out our expert’s March Madness Day 2 best bets
March Madness underdog prediction: Oklahoma Sooners +5.5 over UConn Huskies (-110)
The Oklahoma Sooners will meet the reigning back-to-back champion UConn Huskies in Raleigh on Friday, and this strikes me as an extremely high-variance matchup due to the fact that UConn is generally a high-variance team. Furthermore, as my colleague Sam pointed out, Oklahoma has been outstanding as an underdog this season (12-6 ATS), and this is still a UConn team that has been uninspiring against the spread as a favorite – covering in just 11 of 26 games in that scenario.
The Huskies offense is vastly improved compared to what it was in the nonconference portion of their schedule, but it’s important to remember that UConn has played a pretty weak schedule. Additionally, Dan Hurley’s team is outside the top 150 in adjusted defensive efficiency over the past month, and they should struggle to slow down a top 30 offense in Oklahoma that shoots the three-ball well and has a dynamic guard leading the way in Jeremiah Fears. Oklahoma is certainly live in this game, so I’ll take the points with the Sooners against an overvalued public side.
Shoot for the moon with our 16-team March Madness parlay picks at HUGE +40138 odds!
