Sam Avellone
I hope you were able to pace yourself on Thursday because we have another full day of March Madness mania on Friday! Two #1 seeds will be in play on Day 2 of the Round of 64 – Duke and Florida – as will #2 seeds in Alabama and Michigan State. Interestingly, #12 seed Colorado State is favored over #5 Memphis because the Tigers will be without starting guard Tyrese Hunter, while #11 North Carolina is favored over #6 Ole Miss. Will the Tar Heels continue the trend of First Four winners playing well in the Round of 64? What about Xavier? I can’t wait to find out. In anticipation of Day 2 of the Round of 64, here are my March Madness best bets for Friday. Plus, you can get our March Madness predictions for EVERY game throughout the NCAA Tournament.
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NCAA Tournament Day 2 Picks and Best Bets
Odds courtesy of Bet365 at the time of publishing.
Oklahoma Sooners +5.5 over UConn Huskies (-110)
The Oklahoma Sooners will meet the reigning back-to-back champion UConn Huskies in Raleigh on Friday night, and I like their chances to cover the number at the very least. The Sooners have been great against the number in the underdog role this season, boasting a 12-6 ATS record in those games. Moreover, Oklahoma has covered in 7 consecutive games, and while that’s not predictive in any way, it’s at least noteworthy against a UConn team that has been uninspiring against the number as a favorite – covering in just 11 of 26 games when laying points.
Oklahoma’s rotation is littered with seniors, but it is freshman guard Jeremiah Fears who often steals the show. Fears is a dynamic playmaker who can get to the rim and find the open man, and he should be able to exploit a UConn defense that is poor on the ball. Multiple 40% three-point shooters surround Fears, and this unit has been clicking lately – boasting a top-10 mark in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency over the last month.
Similarly, UConn is top 10 offensively in the last month, but there is a difference in the level of competition these teams played in that span. Oklahoma has not played a single team outside KenPom’s top 50 over the month, while UConn has played 3 teams outside the top 85. Yet, the Huskies are 151st in adjusted defensive efficiency since February 20. I question UConn’s ceiling defensively in this matchup against such a dynamic playmaker in Fears and the multiple Oklahoma shooters, and will take the points with the Sooners for the first of my March Madness best bets because of it. Playable to +3.
Read my full Oklahoma vs UConn prediction, including a 3-star best bet!
Maryland Terrapins -10.5 over Grand Canyon Antelopes (-110)
Back in the NCAA Tournament for the 2nd consecutive year, the Grand Canyon Antelopes hope history repeats itself. The ‘Lopes upset #5 Saint Mary’s in the Round of 64 last year, but I don’t see another Grand Canyon upset in the cards this time around – mostly because I feel Maryland is too good in the front court. The Terrapins are propelled by Derik Queen and Julian Reese down low, and the ‘Lopes haven’t seen many big men of their talent level much this season.
Looking at Grand Canyon’s other power conference matchups this year, the ‘Lopes have given up big games in the post to players like Arizona State’s Basheer Jihad, Stanford’s Maxime Raynaud and Georgia’s Asa Newell and Somotochukwu Cyril. Reese and Queen are arguably better than all of those players, so I like their chances of dominating this matchup against Grand Canyon’s frontcourt.
The Terrapins take great care of the ball, boasting a top-25 turnover rate thanks to excellent play from their guards. For reference, Rodney Rice and Selton Miguel both are in the top 210 out of 2,309 Division players in turnover rate, while junior point guard Ja’Kobi Gillespie is top 35 nationally in assist-to-turnover rate. Grand Canyon has good defensive numbers, but this Maryland offense will be the best unit the Antelopes have played on that end of the floor at any point this season.
On the other end of the floor, it might be a long night for the ‘Lopes. Maryland enters this game as the most efficient defense over the last month according to Bart Torvik. Meanwhile, Grand Canyon is 100th in adjusted offensive efficiency over that time and outside the top 150 this season despite playing against a strength of schedule outside the top 250. The Antelopes don’t take or make very many threes and they turn the ball over on about 18.5% of their possessions, so I don’t see their upside in this matchup and will lay it with Maryland as one of my Day 2 best bets. Playable to -12.
Check out our full Grand Canyon vs Maryland prediction
March Madness Player Prop best bet: Jeremiah Fears (OU) over 23.5 points+assists (-102)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
As I mentioned above, I really like the matchup for Fears. UConn struggles to guard the dribble drive, and Fears thrives there. When he can’t find a shot, he often finds open shooters. Kobe Elvis, Jalon Moore and Duke Miles all knock down at least 39% of their three-point attempts, which greatly improves Fears’ chances of piling up a handful of assists via the drive-and-kick.
Fears’ usage has been through the roof lately, so he may even surpass this number with just points. He took 22 shots against Kentucky, and he’s gotten to the free-throw line at least 10 times in 3 of his last 4 games – where he makes 84% of his attempts. Averaging greater than 30 minutes per game over the last month, he should be heavily involved throughout this one and looks a prime candidate as one of my March Madness best bets.
Which dogs will be barking? See our March Madness upset picks and predictions for today’s games
