Sam Avellone
Wake up everyone, March Madness is finally here! This week has seemingly crawled by, but the action gets started on Thursday afternoon at 12:15 pm ET when Creighton and Louisville tip off at Rupp Arena. Admittedly, outside of the first 2 matchups of the day, the action doesn’t really heat up until the early evening and night slates, when most of the anticipated games like VCU vs BYU, Georgia vs Gonzaga and UC San Diego vs Michigan take place – so I’m going to target that window of games for most of my March Madness best bets on the first full day of the NCAA Tournament. Let’s dive in!
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NCAA Tournament picks and best bets
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Georgia Bulldogs +6.5 over Gonzaga Bulldogs (-110)
In the battle of Bulldogs, I am going with Georgia to at least cover the number against Gonzaga. While I realize Gonzaga is considered to be underseeded when comparing their placement in the NCAA Tournament to its advanced analytical profile, I still feel this line is too high – mostly due to Georgia’s size. The ‘Dawgs have elite length from the frontcourt to the backcourt, and they utilize that positional size advantage to grab ample offensive rebounds, block shots at an elite rate and disrupt the passing lanes. As such, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Graham Ike struggle for periods of this game.
On the surface, the ‘Zags have been good at limiting their opposition from dominating the offensive boards. However, when you dig a bit deeper into Gonzaga’s matchups against high-level opponents this year, you will notice that they were actually torched on the boards. Baylor, West Virginia, Kentucky and UCLA all grabbed at least 12 offensive rebounds against the ‘Zags, and all but 1 (Baylor) beat them. That doesn’t include the 3 games against St. Mary’s, in which the Gaels averaged almost 15 offensive rebounds per game. I expect the ‘Dawgs to have similar success against Gonzaga here, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see them make frequent trips to the free-throw line via their physicality. Georgia hasn’t been the most consistent away from home, but neither has Gonzaga. Give me the Bulldogs of Athens, Georgia to keep this game close. Playable to +5.
Check out the rest of our March Madness best bets from our team of experts — we’re 35-19 this season!
Yale Bulldogs +7.5 over Texas A&M Aggies (-108)
There’s just something about Bulldogs on Thursday, I guess! Yale is obviously on the upset radar after its win over Auburn in the first round of last year’s NCAA Tournament, and for good reason. This team is led by a senior duo in Bez Mbeng and John Poulakidas – who were instrumental in Yale’s success against the Tigers last year – and a veteran head coach in James Jones who has led this program to the second round in 2 of its last 4 NCAA Tournament appearances.
Texas A&M may benefit from a talent advantage in this matchup, but I’m not sure the gap is as wide as some think. Yale has decent positional size, especially for an Ivy League school. The Bulldogs are top 100 in average height per KenPom, and they use that size to successfully limit opposing action at and around the rim – which is where Texas A&M loves to operate. The Aggies live and breathe on the offensive glass, which produces plenty of second-chance opportunities for them, but the Bulldogs are 22nd nationally in opposing offensive rebounding rate this season. Yale is unlikely to completely take away Texas A&M’s offensive boards, but should be able to limit them enough to remain competitive and potentially have a chance to win the game.
The biggest concern here is Yale’s perimeter defense, which ranks 359th nationally in 3-point rate. Luckily for Yale, Texas A&M is one of the worst shooting teams in the country, sitting 317th in 3-point percentage this season and entering this matchup in the 13th percentile in true shooting percentage over its last 5 games. The Aggies also tend to be a bit lazy with the ball from time to time, as they turn it over on more than 18% of their possessions (249th).
For the sake of this article, my official best bet is Yale with the points. However, if you read my Sweet 16 best bets, you know I like the Bulldogs to make it to the Sweet 16 if everything falls their way. Could the Aggies wake up and hit 8 threes in this game? Sure, but I won’t bet on that happening. Playable to +4.
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Best March Madness Player Prop: Braden Smith (PUR) over 18.5 points (-114)
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
For those that have access to college basketball player props, I like Purdue’s Braden Smith to surpass his point total in the early window against High Point on Thursday. On paper, this seems like a very exploitable matchup for Smith. He loves to and excels at operating in the mid-range, which is an area of the floor High Point struggles to defend. Smith almost never comes off the floor, and he averages more than 13 shots per game – so I’m not worried about the volume here unless he gets into foul trouble. In fact, Smith has attempted at least 9 perimeter shots in 4 of his last 5 games. Against a defense that is outside the top 225 in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency and has yet to play a power conference team this season, Smith should get his as the leader of Purdue’s offense. Playable to 20.
Now read our March Madness underdog picks for Day 1 of the NCAA Tournament
