Ricky Dimon
We are halfway through arguably the 2 best days on the annual sporting calendar. Thursday failed to live up to the standards of past NCAA Tournaments in terms of late-game drama, which means we are due for some serious madness on Friday. Another 16-game slate is on the cards, so there is a ton of basketball to watch and a plethora of opportunities on the betting market.
Below is my mega parlay. Also check out our expert’s NCAA Tournament winner predictions, including a +6000 longshot! Plus, don’t miss our comprehensive March Madness 68-team bracket guide, featuring analysis of EVERY team in the tournament!
Mississippi State -1.5 (-110)
North Carolina -2.5 (+100)
Xavier ML (+136)
March Madness parlay odds: +801
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Mississippi State -1.5 over Baylor (-110)
This is a showdown between 2 teams that have struggled a bit of late. Of the 2, I have a lot more concerns about Baylor. The Bears have lost 5 of their 8 games and they went 10-10 in a relatively unspectacular 10-10 in the Big 12. Two of their recent setbacks have come against opponents who did not make the tournament (Colorado and Cincinnati). Baylor’s best player is VJ Edgecombe, a freshman who struggled in the conference tournament – going 4-for-13 from the field during a quarterfinal loss to Texas Tech and 1-for-8 from 3-point land in 2 tournament games.
Mississippi State has dropped 5 of its last 7 contests and compiled an 8-10 record in the SEC. Winning 8 games and being just 2 games under .500 in the SEC is nothing to sneeze at. Josh Hubbard (18.7 ppg) will probably be the best player on the floor in Friday afternoon’s contest and I expect him to make the difference.
Read our full Baylor vs Mississippi State prediction
North Carolina -2.5 over Ole Miss (+100)
Yes, a #11 seed who was reduced to a First Four appearance is favored over a #6 seed. North Carolina is giving somewhere between 1.5 and 2.5 points depending on the shop and I gladly take it at -2.5. The Tar Heels are favored in this one for good reason. People (including the West Virginia governor) can cry all they want about UNC being in the field, but it certainly looked like a tournament team in a 95-68 humiliation of 2023 national runner-up San Diego State on Tuesday night. The Heels went 14-for-24 from downtown, 21-for-24 at the free-throw line and grabbed 10 offensive rebounds. They dominated SDSU in every facet of the game.
Ole Miss is not a good rebounding team at all, so Carolina could once again have its way in the paint. The Rebels are wildly inconsistent on offense and they have to go up against an opponent that is top 35 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency since February 22. UNC has momentum and I expect it to carry over into the second round.
Read our full North Carolina vs Ole Miss prediction
Xavier ML over Illinois (+136)
We have seen play-in winners go on runs plenty of times in the past, so I’m not only rolling with North Carolina but also with Xavier. The Musketeers are coming off a thrilling comeback victory over Texas in what was an awesome First Four game – better than anything we saw in the first round on Thursday. They are among the best 3-point shooting teams in the country and Illinois is #311 in 3-point percentage defense, so this is a favorable matchup for the underdogs.
The Fighting Illini are not playing poorly at the moment, but for the most part it has been a tumultuous 2024-25 campaign in Champaign. A ridiculous 88-65 loss to Maryland in the Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals in which they trailed 57-31 at halftime was an alarming end to a 4-game winning streak. I’m siding with the squad that still has momentum.
Read our full Xavier vs Illinois prediction
